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CNN/USA Today/Gallup have just released results of their latest poll, and it shows little if any change following the convention. Almost none of the shifts in numbers were larger than the margin of error, so no matter how they try to spin it, I don't this poll tells us anything new. Except, perhaps, in that it doesn't agree with either the of the polls I cited earlier this weekend.

No quotes. I'll let you read it yourself and make up your own mind.

UPDATE: OK, maybe not. I just read the USA Today article on the poll, and there is something to quote and analyze that wasn't covered in the CNN article:

• Kerry's acceptance speech Thursday was rated as "excellent" by 26%, a more positive response than Bush got four years ago at his convention. A 44% plurality said the Democrats were "about right" in criticizing Bush; 30% said they went too far. • Views of Kerry's personal characteristics and leadership improved across the board; views of Bush didn't change much. Bush's edge in handling terrorism was shaved to 12 points from 18 before the convention. In a switch, Kerry is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, 51%-46%. • Kerry's military service in Vietnam, a theme of the convention, is seen as a plus. A 52% majority says that experience would help him be an effective president. More than one in four say it makes them more likely to vote for him.

I know the numbers aren't shifting, but I'm not buying it. All of the numbers that matter most (including some I didn't quote on issues who is the most optimistic candidate) are trending HEAVILY towards Kerry. Maybe people are capable of holding one set of belies and still voting for someone else, but I doubt it. What we're seeing, I think, fits with my idea that this is a transformative election for the philosophies of our political parties. I hadn't included this in my theory previously, but it makes sense. There's bound to be a lag time between the party changing and the public internalizing that change. One way that might (I stress might) be seen is in a lag between their holding a belief and their recognizing that they hold that belief. In other words, you might know you prefer a particular candidate, but because of long held beliefs about which party you prefer, you can't bring yourself to tell a pollster that you'd vote for them yet. If that's true, the question is.. how long is the lag? Will the shift come before or after the election?

That idea, more than any other, may determine if the shift actually takes place. If Kerry can convince people the party has changed AND they believe it, then the shift takes hold and becomes reality. If not, then he loses, and perhaps, the shift never takes place.

Will be interesting to watch this Fall.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Read both articles and compare the coverage. Interesting which numbers each organiztion chooses to highlight, isn't it?

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