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So far the consensus among the talking heads seems to be that the Republican Party has given up entirely on winning over the undecideds. After tonight's performance I have to think they're right.

Even before tonight, I would have thought that approach was a long shot. With the President's approval rating below 50%, with polls showing the two candidates polling evenly in the mid to upper 40%'s, giving away all the undecideds to the other side seems completely crazy to me. How can you do that and win?

The answer is turnout. Rove believes there are millions of conservative Christians out there who didn't vote last time around. If you can appeal to them, get them out to the polls, his theory is that you're most of the way to victory. But only most of the way.

The rest of the theory relies on suppressing the undecided vote. After all, just because you're going to give up on them doesn't mean you're going to ignore them. If you can't get their vote, you can do the next best thing. Get them to stay home.

With this convention we're clearly seeing both ideas at work. But I'll be honest with you. Before tonight I thought that approach was risky for Bush. After tonight I think it could be truly disastrous.

One of the problems with energizing your base is that quiet often in energizes your opponent's base as well. Most of the time the worst case scenario is that you end up with a wash - as many of your people come out as theirs. This election, however, holds the potential to go one step further. And tonight may perhaps be the tipping point.

The key, I think, is the "anybody but Bush" idea. Although I know some people who passionately support Kerry, I know many, many more who support "anybody but Bush." Whats critical, however, is that most of them area also people who do not normally vote. All along, I've felt that if they (and others like them) follow through on their promise to vote, this election could become a landslide of historic proportions.

The key question for me all along has been exactly that - will they actually vote? After all human beings are creatures of habit, and if your habit is to stay home on election day, it will take a conscious effort to change that behavior.

Tonights events were a classic exercise in energizing your base. And I have no doubt it worked. The problem for Bush, however, is that it undoubtedly energized the base on both sides of the aisle. More importantly, if my friends and colleagues are any indication, it also energized the "anybody but Bush" camp as well.

So.. has it occurred to Rove that while he may have his millions of evangelicals, there are just as many (if not more) on the left who also stayed home last time? And that if the GOP isn't careful that they too may come out in force this time around?

This is an election of historic importance. Betting the farm on the idea that people are going to stay home seems like an incredibly stupid (and desperate) move to me.

Mark my words. Landslide here we come...

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