Via Andrew Sullivan:
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It's about the incumbent, stupid:
| None of this implies that the current standings will determine the final outcome. Where the race ends up a month from now could obviously be different. However, the incumbent rule tells us that, at any given moment, the President's percentage of the vote relative to 50% is a better indicator of where the race stands than the margin separating Bush and Kerry. It also suggests the appropriate way to read the final polls just before the election (and these are my ranges – others may differ): If the average result of all the final polls (including undecided) puts Bush's percentage at 50% or higher, the President will likely win. If Bush's percentage is 48%-49%, the race is headed for a photo finish. At 47% or lower, the President will likely lose (add 1% to these ranges in any state where Ralph Nader is not on the ballot)
The main point: The incumbent's level of support is more important than the margin. |
By this theory, the latest polls (assuming they are accurate, of course) show a very, VERY close race.
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