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It's late, and I have several discussion sections to lead in the early AM, so I'll make this brief. For now...

1. A basic hurdle most undecideds were looking for Kerry to clear was the "looks Presidential" test. Tonight Kerry cleared it and then some.

2. The reaction from the left has been what I'd call "reserved giddyness." From the left, it's "we didn't do so bad". That tells you something about what they really think. I watched 30+ minutes of Fox News, and the best they could do was call it a draw...

3. What was up with Bush's non-verbal demeanor? He was hunched over, smirking, shaking his head... It looked like Gore in 2000.

4. Leaving substance aside, Kerry took control of the debate out of the gate and never let go. Bush was on the defensive all night, answering Kerry's charges and responding to his lines of attack. A Commander in Chief and "wartime President" should never appear on the defensive. Particularly not to someone you've defined (and continue to define) as wishy-washy and too weak to lead.

5. Memo to Bush. This is a democracy. Your opponent is REQUIRED to criticize your decisions. Doing this does NOT send mixed messages to our enemy. It sends the message that we are a free society committed to the free exchange and debate of ideas.

6. Foreign Policy and the war on terror was supposed to be Bush's trump card. Appearing defensive when you're playing your trump card is NOT good. As I predicted last week, holding this debate first was an idea that seemed to favor Bush but in the end favored Kerry. Because...

7. Kerry now has momentum and confidence going into the final 2 debates and final month of the campaign. And his supporters who had begun losing faith will be back with a vengeance.

8. Yes, the post-debate coverage matters. But what matters more is the post-debate watercooler discussion tomorrow morning at work. Should the "Kerry won" conventional wisdom take hold, it will be impossible to dislodge over the weekend. Which means it will be impossible to dislodge period.

8. PREDICTION 1: The VPs debate before the next Presidential face off. If Edwards comes out ahead versus Cheney, look for the "Kerry the Great Closer Builds Momemtum" meme begin to take hold in the media.

9. PREDICTION 2: You will see an average of a 3% swing towards Kerry in the polls that arrive through the end of the weekend.

10. PREDICTION 3: I've no reason to backpeddle or flipflop. Kerry in a landslide. The methodologies polling firms are using are no longer accurate (flaws: caller ID, cell phones, self selecting respondees) are are dramatically undercounting voters who've never voted before but will this time. And post-election exit polls will show that they broke for Kerry by a 3:1 or 4:1 margin.

I know... I know... As a future political scientist and pundit I shouldn't make such specific predictions. But what've I got to lose? If I'm right, I'll gloat. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it. Fair enough?

More tomorrow, including reaction from my students....

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