| And your account will provide money for retirement over and above the check you will receive from Social Security.
In addition, you'll be able to pass along the money that accumulates in your personal account, if you wish, to your children and -- or grandchildren. And best of all, the money in the account is yours, and the government can never take it away. |
Sounds good, right?
Turns out that's not part of the plan he has proposed.
| What Bush did not detail is how contributions in the account would reduce workers' monthly Social Security checks. Under the system, described by an administration official, every dollar contributed to an account would be taken from the guaranteed Social Security benefit, with interest.
"The person comes out ahead if their personal account exceeds a 3 percent real rate of return, which is the rate of return that the trust fund bonds receive," the senior administration official said. "So, basically, the net effect on an individual's benefits would be zero if his personal account earned a 3 percent real rate of return. To the extent that his personal account gets a higher rate of return, his net benefit would increase." If a worker sets aside $1,000 a year for 40 years, and earns 4 percent annually on investments, the account would grow to $99,800 in today's dollars. All of that money would be the worker's upon retirement. But guaranteed benefits over the worker's lifetime would be reduced by approximately $78,700 -- the amount the worker would have contributed to Social Security but instead contributed to his private account, plus 3 percent interest above inflation. The remainder, $21,100, would be the increase in benefit the worker would receive over his lifetime above the level he would have received if he stayed in the traditional system. Under the system, total benefit gains may be minimal. The Social Security Administration, in projecting benefits under a partially privatized system, assumes a 4.6 percent rate of return over inflation. Thus gains in an account would be offset by a reduction in guaranteed benefits equal to 70 percent of the account's balance. |
So... was he lying, or does he not understand his own plan? More importantly, its clear that the media are finally - and I stress finally - catching on to what this plan is all about. This concept has been discussed and understood for some time on the blogosphere, but until today the media have yet to fully grasp it. That seems to have changed. And now that it has, well... It was going to be a tough sell before. But now?
I don't have time for a full analysis, but fortunately there are plenty of other bloggers on the case.
For starters, Kevin Drum continues to do an excellent job of analyzing the details of the plan's financials. The amazing thing about this proposal is that the more you learn about it, the less sense it makes. Here's a highlight:
| And the cost? Hard to say. But at least $4 or $5 trillion for a system that — even in the worst case — is only $3.7 trillion in the hole for the next 75 years.
Oh, and did we mention that participants are required to buy annuities instead of cashing out their accounts when they retire? So much for bequeathing your "personal account" to your kids in the event of your untimely demise. What a Rube Goldberg monstrosity: layer upon layer of weird safeguards and limitations just to make sure that the new system can do what the current system already does, namely provide a guaranteed, stable retirement income for old people. |
Next up is Josh Marshall who, thanks to an assist from one of his readers, catches a Bush administration official publicly admitting that the plan they've proposed doesn't even solve the made-up crisis that they're using as their excuse for the plan! The best part is the Republican reaction to the news:
| "Oh, my God," one GOP political strategist said when he learned of the shift in rhetoric. "The White House has made a lot of Republicans walk the plank on this. Now it sounds as if they are sawing off the board." |
Apparently it wasn't just the media who didn't understand the implications of the plan.
More later... for now, I'm late for class. Ack!
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