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ON THE BANDWAGON

Looks like Chris Bowers over at MyDD has jumped onto my realignment bandwagon. Ha!

Here's his take on the latest Gallup poll numbers:

Oh baby. This is just so great I have a difficult time being more articulate. The latest Gallup poll, which actually has more Republicans in it than Democrats, shows clear realignment potential:
Some old stereotypes about the two parties have been reversed:

By 55%-40%, respondents say Republicans, traditionally the party of limited government, are "trying to use the federal government to interfere with the private lives of most Americans" on moral values.

By 53%-40%, they say Democrats, who sharply expanded government since the Depression, aren't trying to interfere on moral issues.

The debate over Schiavo has spotlighted the central role "values" issues -- abortion, stem-cell research, same-sex marriage and the right to live or die -- now play in politics.

Mark Rozell, a professor at George Mason University in Virginia who studies religion and politics, says the case has created a "clear backlash."


If this persists, it will serve as a wedge driving directly into the Republican coalition. There is simply no way that Republicans can keep close to parity among moderates, or maintain their current two-thirds majority among reformers, if they are viewed as the party of abusive, intrusive government, and Democrats are not. It also will not help Republicans that their leader is now viewed as misleading by a majority of the country:

On Iraq, Americans by 50%-48% say the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, the reason Bush emphasized in making the case for war. It is the first time more people than not see an attempt to mislead.
If we are viewed as the party of good government, we will win.
Bingo! And it's happening.

Just this past week we've had conservatives suggesting the "starve the beast" philosophy is a failure, a day-by-day widening of the scandal surrounding Tom DeLay, statements by a GOP Senator justifying the actions of domestic terrorists, an economic analysis showing that Dems, not the GOP, are the party of smaller government and bigger economic growth, the Montana legislature going on the record to oppose the Patriot Act, and of course the bizarre overreach by the GOP on the Schiavo tragedy. Never mind the growing strength of the Democratic leadership in both the House and the Senate, the President's plummeting poll numbers, and his inept performance on his Bamboozlepalooza Social Security Destruction Tour, well...

A long list, no?

Thing is, none of it matters without confirmation in poll numbers like this. For literally decades the GOP has run on the idea that the Democratic Party was the party of big intrusive government. It's the wedge they used to destroy the Liberal / New Deal coalition. And while that description might have been true once upon a time, its simply no longer reality. The GOP has become the party of big spending, big deficits, and big intrusive government. And that, my friends, is something the American public is beginning to finally understand.

Realignments happen when political mythologies no longer match up with political realities. For the public to notice that fact, however, usually requires a big event, something out of the ordinary that begins to reframe the debate in the public mind. They're often quite difficult to pinpoint, but in this case, well...

Hang on to your hats. We could be in for a wild ride. Who knew that the real world would so nicely fit with my dissertation topic?!?


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