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Every time I think David Brooks' columns can't get any worse, they do.

Last week we had his pathetic attempt to turn the Republican Party's growing lack of unity into some sort of philosophical strength. Today he continues that brilliant line of analysis, explaining that the real reason behind the GOP's recent string of missteps is... get this... that the American public is too conservative for today's GOP!

The Republican Party is running into a problem: the conservatism of the American people. Over the past decade, the Republicans have set themselves up as the transformational party. That's fine for a party with big ideals. But the American people, who can be quite bold when it comes to transforming their personal lives, tend to be temperamentally conservative and cautious when it comes to government. They have a taste for order and a distrust of those who want too much change on too many fronts too quickly. It's become increasingly clear that the Republicans are bumping into some limits.

Fine. Fine. I have no problem with that analysis, or with most of what follows. After all, the current crop of Republican Party leaders aren't conservative, not in any real sense of that word. And on that point I have no disagreement with Brooks. In fact I'm glad someone like him is making that point. This is, after all, the stuff of realignments. And if he stopped there I'd be fine. But look where he goes with his conclusion:

This does not mean good news for Democrats. That party is at risk of going into a death spiral. The Democrats lost white working-class voters by 23 percentage points in the last election, and now the party is being led by people who are guaranteed to alienate those voters even more: the highly educated and secular university-town elites who follow Howard Dean and believe Bush hatred and stridency are the outward signs of righteousness. According to a Democracy Corps poll, the Democratic Party's standing has dropped eight percentage points since the election.

You've got to be kidding me, right? He's willing to admit that the Republicans have positioned themselves way outside the mainstream on a whole host of critical issues, but somehow... somehow... that puts the DEMOCRATIC PARTY into a "death spiral." Excuse me?

He's got a statistic from a recent poll to back up his case. One statistic. So he must be right, no?

Let's take a closer look at that poll. I mean, sure there are pplenty of others out there that show a rapidly growing distrust of the Republican Party, but he didn't go there so neither will I. Instead he took a stat from a Democracy Corps poll, a smart tactical decision given the ideological slant of that organization. So let's look closer...

First off, Brooks fails to mention the date on that poll: it was conducted BEFORE the whole Schiavo mess even began. Considering that Republican overreach on the Schiavo case is central to his entire thesis, Brooks is either being sloppy or deliberately misleading. And either way...

But flip through the Democracy Corps analysis of their poll and things rapidly go from bad to worse. So, in the interest of fairness, balance, apple pie, moms, flags, and all other things uber-American, here is the full analysis of the Democracy Corps poll that David didn't mention:

Sources of Republican Vulnerability So why, after all that, are the Republicans vulnerable? The starting point for the Republicans is their weakness on being “for the middle class.” A meager 44 percent think that describes them – 13 points below that for the Democrats – and that is the source of almost everything else that drags them down. While we need much more time to analyze the rich data here, we wanted to highlight where the Republicans seemed in trouble or the public cautious. • The Republicans are not for the average person: just 44 percent “for the middle class,” rising to only 47 percent on “cares about people” and 48 percent on being “on your side.” (Democrats falter, in part, because they are no higher on many of these key indicators, including scoring identically on being “on your side.”) • The Republicans do not champion the public interest either: just 47 percent think they “put the public interest first” and 46 percent that they will stand up to special interests. Less than a third reject the attack that they put corporate interests ahead of the public interest. • The Republicans put the needs of big corporate interests ahead of the ordinary citizen. Less than a third of voters reject any of these assertions: “for big business, not the middle class”; “for the rich,” and “government by and for the big corporate interests.” The Republicans have not crossed even a modest threshold on representing the interests of ordinary citizens or that of the public. • Though the Republicans are strong on moral values, only half the voters think Republicans share their values and priorities. This lack of connection on values is rooted in a number of factors, starting with the indifference to ordinary people and the public interest. It also may reflect other kinds of values, as only 50 percent say the Republicans are “trustworthy.” Just 50 percent think they are in touch, presumably with their lives and needs. Less than half think they have the right priorities. • Republicans may be going too far in pushing their religious conservative agenda. A majority of the country describe them as “too conservative” (52 percent), and perhaps most important, a like number say they “force their moral beliefs on others.” • They are not heralded for their economic policies. Only half associate them with a good economy, including only 19 percent who do so strongly. • They are not heralded on the environment. A majority of 53 percent thinks they are “indifferent to the environment.” • They are not heralded for how they relate to the world. There is a reason why Bush established no real advantage over Kerry on foreign policy. A meager 49 percent believe that the Republicans make America respected in the world. Indeed, 58 percent say they are committing too many of our resources abroad and failing to address problems at home. In an earlier survey, this lack of domestic focus was one of the biggest doubts about the Republicans. • They are the establishment, at a time when a majority of the country thinks things are headed in the wrong direction. A quite substantial 59 percent describe them as part of the Washington mess – 10 points below that for the Democrats. There is a potential price to pay for being in power.

Wow. If that's not a "death spiral" for the Democratic Party I don't know what is! Remember that this analysis was done BEFORE Schiavo. Anyone want to place bets on how that might affect these numbers?

Once upon a time Brooks might have been able to deliver smart analysis, but like conservatism itself he seems to have run flat out of new ideas.

UPDATE: OK, hang on a minute. Rereading this it sounds like I'm agreeing with Brooks' claim that most Americans are conservative. And I'm not. To say that is to fundamentally misunderstand American history.

This nation and the revolution that founded it were based entirely on radical ideas - that the people are sovereign, that leaders can and must be subjects of the people and not vice versa. Since then we've fought numerous wars and ended countless lives defending the idea that individual liberty can and must be protected not just here at home but around the world as well. What part of that is "conservative?"

Moreover, in our domestic politics, our history clearly shows that Americans are centrist, not conservative. That is the reason we inevitably have realigning elections several times each century. One party gains power, drags the nation to the left or the right, and eventually goes too far for the nation to accept. When that happens the people inevitably rise up, reshuffle the political landscape, and select new leaders to take us back in the other direction. (Brief 20th century history lesson: The Republicans overreached in the 1920's and the result was FDR and the New Deal. The Dems did it too in the 1960's and 70's and the result was the "Reagan revolution." My contention is that the GOP is doing it now, and that come 2008 or 2012 we'll realign once again.) What part of that is "conservative?"

Seriously. Somebody needs to stop this man before he writes again.

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