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OK... When you read it on a blog its one thing. But in the WaPo? And from Ignatius?

The Republicans come to their present troubles from different directions: President Bush thought he was making a safe, pragmatic choice in nominating Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court, but this soulless maneuver enraged the party's right wing and set it on a fratricidal binge. Tom DeLay thought he was ramrodding a permanent Republican government, but he managed to get himself indicted and, well before that calamity, had angered House Republicans who concluded that "The Hammer's" leadership style was marching them off a cliff. Looming over all these little problems is the crucible of Iraq. What's interesting is that most of these wounds are self-inflicted. They draw a picture of a party that, for all its seeming dominance, isn't prepared to be the nation's governing party. The hard right, which is the soul of the modern GOP, would rather be ideologically pure than successful. Governing requires making compromises and getting your hands dirty, but the conservative purists disdain those qualities. They swim for that beach with a fiercely misguided determination, and they demand that the other whales accompany them.

Actually, what's really interesting is that this is precisely the same thing the Democratic Party did in the 1970's and early 1980's. Once upon a time they governed on behalf of all Americans. But over time they tilted further and further towards their base. That drove the reaction from the right, and eventually produced Ronald Reagan. What we're seeing here is strikingly similar.

Ah... but where are the Dems you ask? Remember that in 1979 virtually no one saw Reagan coming, and that even after his election the full ramifications of his victory weren't yet clear.

More:

What you sense now, as conservative and moderate Republicans alike take potshots at their president, is that the GOP is entering the post-Bush era. A war of succession has begun, cloaked in a war of principles. The cruelest aspect of Bush's predicament is that the conservatives are treating him with the same disdain they showed his father. What a denouement to the West Wing Oedipal drama: A son who did everything he could to avoid his father's humiliation by the conservative wing of the party is now under attack by the right himself. Principles are a fine thing, but a narrow, partisan definition of principle has led the Republicans to a dead end. Their inability to transcend their base and speak to the country as a whole is now painfully obvious. Like the Democrats in their years of decline, they are screaming at each other -- not realizing how far they have drifted from the mid-channel markers that have always led to open waters and defined success in American politics.

Here Ignatius is dead on. My guess is that as the 2006 midterm grows nearer, the split within the GOP will deepen. Without a national race, however, they'll most likely hold things together. Until, that is, they get routed on election day. And after that the fragmentation will begin. And what then?

Well, since I'm making predictions.... one of two things. One possibility is that a "centrist" like McCain will get the nod from the GOP. If that happens, he'll be running on an anti-corruption, pro-competence agenda that will appeal to the great silent majority that sits in the center of the political landscape. If that happens, my guess is the Dems will be toast - unless, of course, they can nominate a charismatic young leader who can excite people a la JFK. The other possibility, of course, is that the hardcore religious fanatics take control of the party, nominating someone who'll promise to put "God back in the government." If that happens, look for a loss bigger than that suffered by McGovern and an end to the bizarre role religion plays in today's politics.

Are both of those scenarios optimistic? Yes, they are. Believe it or not, I do still have faith in this nation and its people. Nixon was right - the silent majority can only suffer so long. Eventually they will rise up, and when they do they will be heard. The parallels between then and now are far, far from perfect, but they are growing. A breakdown in the effectiveness of government. A collapse in the unity of the governing coalition. Scandal. Economic distress. A disastrously unnecessary failed war effort.

And we're still 3 years out...

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