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OK... So I sit down on the couch to relax a bit before hitting the books, and next thing I know I wake up three hours later. In the meantime, Publius has put together a post that nails something I was planning on saying myself. The key bit:

Basically, it’s just not clear to me that the Court has 1/100th of the importance that everyone ascribes to it. Throughout history, it has generally followed public opinion (or at least, elite public opinion), and there’s little it can do against committed legislative majorities (for instance, Brown was virtually ignored until the Civil Rights Act ten years later that tied integration with federal funding). The legislature is where the real action is – and it’s better to focus the resources there. So, the million-dollar question is whether an all-out war over Alito makes winning legislative seats more or less likely. Nothing else matters. And I predict it will make it less likely. Court fights are necessarily culture war fights, and polarization along culture war lines are usually better for conservatives. The bottom line is that progressives are winning the war right now. Bush is in retreat and the GOP is extremely vulnerable in ‘06. An all-out culture war over Alito would take everything else out of the headlines and completely change the current dynamic. In the end, I’m just not sure it’s worth it. And I sure as hell don’t want to be watching the election returns in ‘06 thinking back, like Faulkner’s 14-year old boy, about the failed “Alito’s Charge” that changed the dynamic and cost progressives the war.

I could not agree with this more. Unless we find something utterly outrageous in this man's opinions or past history, or unless outside events conspire to change things in a big way, I say we let this one go. Use the hearings as a chance to highlight just how extreme the GOP has become, but then let it go. It's the Congress, the Governorships, and eventually the presidency that matter most. We must stay focused on that. That's where the real battle is, not here.

The truth is that unless something outrageous turns up the Dems cannot stop this nomination. They simply cannot. I know that will hurt for some people to admit, but its true. They have the numbers. We do not. And that means that should Dems choose to pick a fight, should they choose to make this one a fight to the death, there is only one possible outcome. We lose. And we lose big.

I know some people, including Digby, aren't big on the whole "let them enact their real agenda and reap the whirlwind" strategy, and to a point I agree. But only to a point. Truth be told, for years conservatives have won by hiding their true agenda. It's been maddening to watch, and infuriating to fight. Sure, its obvious what's going on if you're paying attention. The hard part is getting the casual political viewer to see the truth.

But that's why, when Bush was reelected last year, I saw a silver lining. It was just so obvious he would overreach, so obvious he would finally show his true colours. We're just 10 months in - and look at the effect! His poll numbers are at all time lows. People are convinced he's taking the country in the wrong direction. Why? Because as he's overreached they've finally seen the truth, finally seen what Republican leadership really means.

And that's why I think this strategy has some merit. Let them show their true colours and then, when the time is right, when the battle can be won, battle back hard. Fight as if the future of this nation depended on it - because it does. For years they hid their true agenda from the people, using code words and catch phrases rather than admitting the truth. But that's changed, and we must learn to use that to our advantage. Because when their agenda is exposed we have the advantage.

Am I, as Digby would suggest, willing to give away everything in the process? Of course not. This isn't a slippery slope. It doesn't work that we. We chose when, how, and where to fight. Like Publius, all I'm suggesting is that we choose to fight in battles where we at least stand a chance to win. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe this is a battle we can win. Of course that is indeed possible. But as of right now I'm just not seeing that. I just don't feel it.

One last point. To those of you who would counter by saying that a victory here would allow the GOP to regain their momentum I say this. Good luck. Momentum comes from winning the battles you're not supposed to win much more than from the ones that are all but guaranteed. But given how down the White House is right now, my guess is they won't read it that way. My guess is they'll overestimate its import, and just as they did following the 2004 election head straight into the overreach. What Social Security was for 2005 Tax Reform will be for 2006. And if you want to see a full-scale realignment in this country, just watch what happens if Bush proposes eliminating the mortgage interest tax deduction. Just wait....

I don't like losing battles. Scratch that. I HATE losing battles. But elections have consequences, and sometimes that means you find some battles, for a time at least, simply cannot be won. My hunch is that this is one of them.

Fight when you need to.

Strategize when you don't.

And when you do fight, Win.

Is this a battle we can win? Is it?

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