I've always thought that the fatal flaw in Rove's "I am Hanna, hear me roar!" realignment strategy was that it didn't consider who and what came after McKinley - Teddy Roosevelt and the Progressives. Sure, the 1896 election locked in Republicans for most of a generation, but that's such a superficial understanding of the history that it makes my head hurt.
Here's a brief summary: McKinley was a disaster of a president owned and operated by big money and big business. He was not terribly bright, but his handlers/fundraisers were excellent. Once in office, he led the nation into an unnecessary war with Spain, a project made possible through the use of bogus intelligence and a complicit national press. Despite his record of failures, he was reelected to a second term, but shot dead a year later by a former Republican turned anarchist.
TR was his Vice President, but he hated Hanna. And he was none too thrilled with McKinley's policies. He was a brilliant man with near limitless energy who devoured any book within reach. Once in office, he was a trust buster who took on big business, establishing for the first time the idea that government can and should regulate significant parts of the economy. He established the National Forest Service, built the modern National Park Service, ushered in the Progressive era, and set the US on its course towards superpower status. One of our best presidents ever followed one of the worst. And if all that weren't enough, after his hand picked successor failed to live up to his standards, TR returned to politics, forced Woodrow Wilson to tack towards progressives on a wide variety of issues, and in so doing handed the Dems the White House and set up (in time) the FDR realignment.
That's the crash course version. And now that you've read it, wonder aloud with me... McKinley's manager was Rove's model for success?
Which brings us in a roundabout way to The Moose. He might be right. McCain might fit the pattern. Or not. Perhaps a strong Dem will step up and claim the mantle. Either way one thing is sure - if the next president is going to succeed, he's going to need to be a larger than life, full break from the past individual.
I still believe. The realignment is coming. Its coming. Its coming.
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