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I'm in the middle of working on a longer news round up, but this one couldn't wait. There are several new polls out today, and all of them are very bad for Bush. But Digby has done some digging and turned up some very interesting data buried in the analysis:

They separated results by blue, red and purple states, the latter of which are "13 purple states -- 12 in which there was a margin of five points or less in the 2004 popular vote between Bush and Kerry, plus Missouri, historically considered the nation's most accurate barometer of presidential voting. These states have 153 of the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the presidency." They are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oregon, Wisconsin. Bush has a worse approval rating in those states than in the blue states. They also favor Democrats over Republicans in the 06 race by a a slightly larger margin than the blue states. In general, people in swing states have turned on Bush and the Republicans, big time. But more startling than that is the huge gender gap. Across the board, women are much more critical of the Bush administration and the Republicans than men. The number on terrorism is particularly startling. Men still approve of Bush's handling of the war on terrorism by 51 to 45 percent. Women disapprove of his handling of terrorism by 59 to 35 percent.

That's huge. HUGE. In an update to the post, Digby suggests ways McCain may use this to his advantage in 2008. I think he's dead on, but for one thing. I think the Republican primary fight will be vicious, and that in the end McCain won't get the support he needs from religious conservatives. Maybe its just wishful thinking, but I can easily imagine a scenario similar to 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt split the Republican party by running as a Bull Moose, allowing Wilson to walk into the White House. McCain reminds me of TR at times, particularly for his stubbornness. 2008 will be his last chance, and my guess is he'll go to the mat this time around. We'll see....

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