Via Kos, here's a great story from The Salt Lake City Tribune on the rapid transformation of the mountain west. An excerpt:
A Tribune analysis of U.S. House results shows that Democrats have narrowed a 20-point GOP edge in 2000 to a slim 48 percent to 47 percent deficit in 2006. In three states - Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico - Democrats have turned their red states blue, winning a majority in the House races.In 1996, the eight states in the Rocky Mountain West sent 18 Republicans and four Democrats to the House. When Congress convenes next year, there will be 11 Democrats and 15 Republicans representing the Western districts.
Democrats now control five of the eight governorships and, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, picked up seats in five of the eight legislatures in 2006.
"All the way from Canada to Mexico you're seeing blue," says New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson[...]Furthermore, traditional Democratic stomping grounds, the Rust Belt and Northeast, have been losing House seats, while the West remains one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, with the potential to pick up a handful of House seats after the 2010 census.
"You now have five Western states that are in critical play for 2008," says Denver-based political activist Mike Stratton, referring to Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and, now, Montana. A Democratic presidential candidate who can win two or three of those states will win the White House, he says.
"Now in 2008 what has to happen is the Democratic candidates have to speak to Western issues," said Stratton.
But here's my favorite part:
Dave Hansen, a former political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and a Western field organizer for the Republican National Committee for the past three decades, says 2006 was an anomaly.
"It was an anti-administration election around the country, so I don't buy into the idea that the West is moving Democratic," says Hansen, who ran Sen. Orrin Hatch's 2006 campaign. He says if Democrats govern well, they could sustain their gains. "If they don't, I think the Republicans will have a pretty good election in 2008 and then their story will be there's a trend back to the Republicans."
The best a Republican operative in Utah -- yes, that Utah -- could do was to offer up the argument that Republicans will reverse the trend if Democrats screw up. That's it. That's all they've got.
But if the story doesn't convince you, this pdf showing a state by state. election by election breakdown surely will. No matter what people like Hansen might say, this is not about the 2006 election. It's a trend that began six years ago and that has, whether they like it or not, accelerated during every election cycle since.
Hold the convention in Denver. Nominate a midwesterner or westerner. Finish the transformation. Realign the mountains. With the right candidate, 2008 will be the year.
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