And while I'm on the subject of predictability, it appears the Taliban have established a new mini-state along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Again,t he possibility of this outcome was entirely predictable and should have been planned for.
Like the borders of Iraq, the border separating Afghanistan from Pakistan was a creation of the West, the result of a treaty imposed on the Afghans by the British in the late 1890s. The division of the Pashtun homelands into two halves wasn't simply an accident of history - it was a deliberate act. Britain hoped to keep the tribes divided, the better to serve as a buffer between their Indian Empire and the Russians to the North. When India was granted independence in 1947, the Pashtun question once again remained deliberately unresolved, with tribes on the Indian side of the border offered only a choice between remaining part of India or joining the new state of Pakistan. The option to unify with their brethren in Afghanistan was a choice that deliberately was not offered.
And yet we're surprised the Pashtun homelands remain impossible to govern? Are you kidding me? We should have seen this coming. We should have done everything we could to avoid this outcome. And yet...
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