Via Kevin Drum... it looks like California is moving its primary date up so that it falls just two weeks after New Hampshite. Although the Republican calendar is still in flux, here's how the early dates would look for the Dems:
Iowa (Jan. 14)
Nevada (Jan. 19)
New Hampshire (Jan. 22)
South Carolina (Jan. 29)
California (Feb 5)
This is, of course, still subject to state approval, and its entirely possible that other states will join the front-loading rush. Florida and Michigan, for example, are both debating going early. But for now, some preliminary thoughts, in no particular order:
+ The conventional wisdom seems to be that this will help Hillary. (She's in, by the way). According to the LA Times, the CA primary is likely to cost $6 million to $8 million per candidate. So... while I don't necessarily disagree that this will help Hillary, I think that's interpreting this a bit too narrowly. A better interpretation is that it will help those candidates who can raise large sums of cash. Or perhaps more importantly, its going to bury those who cannot raise mountains of cash.
+ Judging from the comments at Kevin's place, many people don't believe that either Obama or Edwards can raise that kind of money. Why they believe that is beyond me. Obama has said he will need to raise $75 million, and he wouldn't have entered the race if he did not believe he could do it. Same goes for Edwards. As for Vilsack, Kucinich, and the others, however...
+ It is possible that we will know the nominee by early February. But the conventions won't be until late summer. This is stupid. If we're going to front load, let's move the whole process much later in the year, shortening up the entire process and eliminating the weird "waiting period" of late Spring and early Summer.
+ Gender and race are less likely to be an obvious issue in California than they are elsewhere. Particularly the South. This would seem to benefit both Hillary and Obama. Although, to be honest, my time spent living in NorCal makes me think that this will not help Hillary nearly as much as everyone thinks. I don't exactly know how to explain this, but she is just so not California.
+ I absolutely love the idea of California stepping up and asserting itself. It is an enormous state, one that is vastly underrepresented in our politics (the US Senate is just the most obvious example here), and I'd love to see it play a more active role in balancing the influence of "middle" America.
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