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Prediction of the Day (Updated)

Today's prediction: This is going to come back to haunt Hillary in a very big way.

The idea that a politician can be held responsible for everything all of their financial donors say sounds like a wonderful idea in theory. But in practice, it takes so much money to run a successful campaign that candidates are inevitably forced to rely on literally hundreds of high profile donors over the course of the campaign. Given that none of them actually work for the campaign, its hard to see why a candidate should be held responsible for all of their public statements. My guess is that somewhere along the campaign, one of Clinton's donors is going to say something dumb, and the closer that happens to primary day, the more likely it is that one of her challengers will throw this precedent back in her face.

Predictions aside, I have to ask: what precisely did Mr. Geffen say that was a "personal insult"? Here are the relevant parts of Dowd's column, along with some of my thoughts on the matter:

“Not since the Vietnam War has there been this level of disappointment in the behavior of America throughout the world, and I don’t think that another incredibly polarizing figure, no matter how smart she is and no matter how ambitious she is — and God knows, is there anybody more ambitious than Hillary Clinton? — can bring the country together.

Claim one: Hillary is polarizing. Given that I assume Geffen meant she is politically polarizing, there's nothing personal about that.

Claim two: Hillary is smart and ambitious. Given that he didn't mean that as an insult, I'm assuming this isn't part of her complaint.

“Obama is inspirational, and he’s not from the Bush royal family or the Clinton royal family. Americans are dying every day in Iraq. And I’m tired of hearing James Carville on television.”...

Unless Hillary wants to take personal offense with the royal suggestion, I don't see how this can be interpreted as a personal attack. And if she does take the royal charge personally, well... that only proves Geffen's point, doesn't it?

“It’s not a very big thing to say, ‘I made a mistake’ on the war, and typical of Hillary Clinton that she can’t,” Mr. Geffen says. “She’s so advised by so many smart advisers who are covering every base. I think that America was better served when the candidates were chosen in smoke-filled rooms.”...

Another political claim: Hillary is over-managed and over-advised, and it is preventing her from admitting her vote on the war was a mistake.

Did Mr. Spielberg get in trouble with the Clintons for helping Senator Obama? “Yes,” Mr. Geffen replies, slyly. Can Obamba stand up to Clinton Inc.? “I hope so,” he says, “because that machine is going to be very unpleasant and unattractive and effective.”

Once, David Geffen and Bill Clinton were tight as ticks. Mr. Geffen helped raise some $18 million for Bill and slept in the Lincoln Bedroom twice. Bill chilled at Chateau Geffen. Now, the Dreamworks co-chairman calls the former president “a reckless guy” who “gave his enemies a lot of ammunition to hurt him and to distract the country.”

“Marc Rich getting pardoned? An oil-profiteer expatriate who left the country rather than pay taxes or face justice?” Mr. Geffen says. “Yet another time when the Clintons were unwilling to stand for the things that they genuinely believe in. Everybody in politics lies, but they do it with such ease, it’s troubling.”

A long series of attacks? Yes. But once again, all of them are political in nature. Bill Clinton was personally reckless, and he misused the presidential pardon. I love the guy, but his behavior in office is a historical fact. And true, l'affair Lewinsky may have begun as a personal matter, but whether any of us like it or not the personal became political. That's not a claim; its a fact.

So much for the substance of the claims and counter claims. As for the exchange itself, I have to agree with both Greg and Kevin. It will be interesting to see how Obama responds to this. If a precedent is set that binds candidates to all of the statements of their donors, this will not be the last time we see an attack like this. And as Kevin says, it is both interesting and depressing that we're seeing attacks like this so soon.

My hope is that we can get most of this nonsense out of the way early. A guy can dream, can't he?

UPDATE: Here's Team Obama's response. I have to say, I expected this would get turned around on Hillary eventually. I didn't expect it would get turned around on her today:

“We aren’t going to get in the middle of a disagreement between the Clintons and someone who was once one of their biggest supporters. It is ironic that the Clintons had no problem with David Geffen when was raising them $18 million and sleeping at their invitation in the Lincoln bedroom. It is also ironic that Senator Clinton lavished praise on Monday and is fully willing to accept today the support of South Carolina State Sen. Robert Ford, who said if Barack Obama were to win the nomination, he would drag down the rest of the Democratic Party because he's black.’"

I'd prefer that we didn't have to go through all this, but sadly, its just the way our system works today. Given that, this is a pretty solid response from Obama's team. In one paragraph they reframed it as a dispute between Clinton and her supporters, mentioned how Geffen has stayed at the White House after fundraising for the Clintons, and called attention to a ludicrous statement made over the weekend by one of Hillary's supporters.

We all knew Hillary's team would know how to fight. Looks like Obama's team has some skills as well.