Atrios says it will take longer than Schaller suspects. I think it will actually happen sooner. Either way, this op-ed lays out the best case I've yet seen for why we're on the verge of a major realignment in our politics. A taste:
According to the latest Gallup survey, Republican self-identification has declined nationally and in almost every American state. Why? The short answer is that President Bush's war of choice in Iraq has destroyed the partisan brand Republicans spent the past four decades building.
That brand was based upon four pillars: that Republicans are more trustworthy on defense and military issues; that they know when and where markets can replace or improve government; that they are more competent administrators of those functions government can't privatize; and, finally, that their public philosophy is imbued with moral authority. The war demolished all four claims[...]Military members are skeptical, too. A Military Times poll released in December revealed that only 35 percent of military members approved of the president's handling of the war - despite the fact that 46 percent of them are self-identified Republicans (down from 60 percent in previous Military Times polls) while just 16 percent are Democrats. According to a recent Zogby survey of troops serving in Iraq, 72 percent want American forces home within a year.
I do agree with Atrios about one thing: I had expected by this point that most, if not all, of the major Republican candidates would be running away from Bush as fast as possible. So far, however, they've all moved to align themselves closely with him. Which, given the public's view of the president, is more than a bit odd. The thing is, if one of them doesn't break soon, its likely none of them will. I just don't think any of them could pull of that kind of reversal and survive.
Given the candidates that are out there, my guess is that next summer the GOP will nominate someone who is largely supportive of the president's policies. And the campaign against that just about writes itself.
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