So I just gave a lecture today in Intro to American Politics about critical realignment theory, and at the end, as I was running out of time, I gave a very short version of my case for a coming realignment. Then, when I got back to my office, the very first blog post I read included this gem:
Just had an interesting interview with a Republican State Senator in which he raised an interesting point. Basically, he was complaining about how the conservative movement had essentially been reduced to one single, inviolable principle: never raise taxes ever. It's crazy he said...."The notion that these are programs Democrats want and Republicans abhor may have been true thirty years ago, but I feel like there's been a shift. Now, everybody wants the programs, but one group [the Republicans] is unwilling to pay for them, and the other group [the Democrats] is unable to pay for them."
That's my generational replacement argument in a nutshell. What once made sense no longer does, largely because new people are living with the outdated ideas of a people and a time that are now gone. Too bad I didn't read this before class today!
As for the "Dems are unable to pay for them" line, that's only true so long as they continue to buy into the Republican idea that tax "increases" will never fly with the public. Just last week, for example, the NYT ran a poll that showed a very substantial majority of Americans would be willing to pay higher taxes to get universal health care. Why? Because most people believe that the tax increases would take the place of the absurdly high premiums they are already paying. If implemented properly, the tax "increase" would actually leave the average American with more money in their pocket at the end of the month. When you've reached a point where raising taxes saves people money, you know something has gone seriously wrong in our system.
So yes, while I believe most of what is said above is true, I think he's missing one key aspect. Democrats will be able to pay for the programs once they figure out that the old political order is dead. When Texas Republicans are starting to admit that, its hard to see how that day won't come sooner rather than later.
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