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The Anti-Giuliani Pledge

First it was movement conservative insider Richard Viguerie declaring war on Rudy Giuliani. Now its Christian Conservative leader James Dobson:

"Speaking as a private citizen and not on behalf of any organization or party, I cannot, and will not, vote for Rudy Giuliani in 2008. It is an irrevocable decision. If given a Hobson's – Dobson's? – choice between him and Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barrack Obama, I will either cast my ballot for an also-ran – or if worse comes to worst – not vote in a presidential election for the first time in my adult life. My conscience and my moral convictions will allow me to do nothing else."

Dobson is one of the most important Evangelical / political leaders in the country. If he uses his radio show to talk about Giuliani like this, then Giuliani has no chance of winning.

Actually, on second thought.... although this might not bar Giuliani from winning the Republican nomination, it will surely keep him from winning the general election. If evangelical voters stay away from the polls next year, it opens up the possibility that someone other than a strict social conservative could win the GOP nomination. But come the general election, whomever that person is, they cannot possibly hope to win without the support of evangelicals. Thus, they might simultaneously clear the way for his nomination and bar the way for his election.