In less than 48 hours Bush made my previous prediction null and void. It won't be the "stuck boat" that will be used as a metaphor for this administration. Why use a metaphor when a real story will do.
Bush commutes the sentence of Scooter Libby because he felt the sentence was to harsh. One law for him and his friends, another for the rest of us.
Next time a conservative starts screeching about mandatory minimums, I know how to answer: What about Scooter Libby?
Bush admits the man broke the law. He admits that he committed a felony. He did not object to the verdict, only the sentence. Too harsh, he says. Those mandatory minimums? Those sentencing guidelines Republicans crafted so loving in order that those liberal judges wouldn't let criminals walk? Those are only for the little people.
Everyone seems to be making predictions, so here's mine: This will be a disaster for the Republican Party. The simple version of the story, the version that people will be telling one another tomorrow morning on the street corner, in the barber shop, in taxis, and around the water-cooler, goes something like this:
Did you hear that the president let a man go free because he was his friend? What a dick.
I know people on the right think Bush was being clever with the whole commutation thing, but I think they've got it backwards. A commutation is complicated. It's hard to explain and even harder to understand. And that makes it seem way, way too clever - in the worst possible sense of the word.
And the water-cooler narrative on that is simple, too. It will go something like this:
Wait, you mean the guy still pays a fine? So he's guilty? Then why isn't he going to prison? What's wrong with these people
Which, 48 hours, will morph into this:
The president let a guilty man go free because he was his friend. What a dick.
As for the damage it will do to the Republican Party... All of the major Republican candidates for the presidency have either suggested or outright endorsed the idea of a pardon. They are already on the record. They are on the president's side, and now they are going to have to defend his decision.
The Republican Party has spent the last 35+ years building a brand on the ideas of "strength" and "law and order." This story cuts through that brand so thoroughly that it is almost hard to comprehend.
Hang it around their necks. The Republican Party is so corrupt that they cheered as a guilty man went free. What will we tell the children?
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