Steve Benen has an interesting take on the support Clinton - the most hawkish of all of the Democratic candidates - seems to be getting from anti-war Democrats:
If you look at the poll results, Clinton leads among voters who want U.S. troops withdrawn “as soon as possible,” followed by Obama, and then Edwards. Among Democrats who support more gradual withdrawal plans, Clinton leads, followed by Obama, and then Edwards. Among Dems who want U.S. forces to stay in Iraq “until the war is won,” Clinton leads, followed by Obama, and then Edwards.
It leads me to suspect that the candidates’ positions on Iraq, at this point in the process, don’t matter at all. Clinton is ahead on this issue because she’s ahead overall.
This is precisely the reason that national polls don't yet matter. If people aren't yet paying enough attention to know the policies of the candidates on the single biggest issue facing the nation, they must not be paying attention at all. Which, of course, would match perfectly with everything anyone who has ever studied the issue already knows.
I suspect, however, that there's a second factor at work here. And it's related to this comment from Dana Goldstein over at Tapped:
After President Bush addresses the nation about Iraq tonight at 9 p.m., flip to MSNBC, where John Edwards has purchased air time to, according to a campaign email, "challenge the President's remarks with a strong call to the nation to end the war now." Seems like a smart strategy for the candidate fighting for second place, and probably a way the campaign hopes to steal away some of Barack Obama's antiwar thunder. Obama had a great line in his Iraq speech yesterday: "I opposed the war in 2002. I opposed it in 2003. I opposed it in 2004. I opposed it in 2005. I opposed it in 2006."
Unless you've been paying very careful attention, it's been hard to tell the difference between the policy preferences of leading Democratic candidates. The differences were there, of course, but they weren't immediately obvious.
But I get the sense that might be starting to change this week. The Petraeus Show might not change the policy in Iraq, but it appears it may shift the debate about the policy among those who want to be president.
Obama has clarified his message substantially this week. Edwards began that process last week, a process he looks set to continue tonight.
I realize that it seems like the race is fairly static, but that's only because nothing has happened yet. I've been expecting late-October or early November to be the key moment, but like everything else in this race, it may come earlier than expected. One way or the other, though, its coming. You can count on that.
