Iowa Dems look set to move their caucus to January 3, 2008. Looks like Chris Bowers beat me to the interpretive punch:
Student participation. Contrary to the belief of many, college students do not cease to exist during semester break. Instead, most of them simply return home. Thus, not only do I still think college students will participate in the Iowa caucus in large numbers, I actually think they will participate in even larger numbers than they would have if the caucuses took place during the semester. This is because the college students who will be in Iowa will be from Iowa, making them more familiar with the caucus process than others. Further, even though I was unable to find any statistics on this matter, I bet that Iowa is actually a net exporter of college students, meaning that more college students will be in Iowa on January 3rd than otherwise would have if the caucuses were held during the semester. Yet further, many of these students won't have any obligations at all on a night like Thursday, January 3rd, even if they have jobs while at home, so they will be likely to participate. So, there will be plenty of college students: they will just be spread around the state, rather than dominating the university towns.
I've been telling my students this for the past few weeks now: the earlier the Iowa caucus is held, the more influence Iowa students will have on the process. Attending a caucus is a pain in the ass. It requires a serious time commitment, one that most adults with jobs are both unwilling and unable to make. But college students? On January 3, they have more time than they know what to do with. If you can figure out a way to mobilize them, well....
Hey Barack, you listening?
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