Pay attention to Iowa. For now, forget everything else. National polls don't matter.
Did last week's contentious debate shift national polling results? Of course not. Average Americans still aren't paying careful attention to the race, and they won't be for some time. So if the debate caused a shift, it won't be picked up in national polling data.
Early debates aren't aimed at shifting public opinion. Instead, candidates aim to shift campaign narratives and media coverage. And by that metric, last week's debate had a huge impact on the race. For the first time Sen. Clinton was put on the defensive, with analysis of her reaction dominating the news for most of the week. Prior to the debate the master narrative was about inevitability, and although that narrative may return, for now at least we've moved on.
Edwards has tried to take advantage of this with a new ad in Iowa that is a direct continuation of the attacks he launched during the debate, while Obama has continued to focus on the media directly through a series of interviews and legislative proposals designed to take advantage of the shift in national coverage. And if either of these approaches work, it will be in no small part because of this week's debate.
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