I suspect this ad is going to be very well received in Michigan:
It all depends on the reaction to his closing line:
I'm Mike Huckabee and I approved this message because I believe most Americans want their next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off."
It's well written, but the delivery is a bit softer than I would have liked. Either way, though, it could help broaden his reach beyond social conservatives, something that will be crucial if he is to do well in Michigan.
UPDATE: RealClearPolitics:
What New Hampshire delivered last night was a revitalized Sen. John McCain, which makes Michigan a three-way race, which makes Gov. Huckabee's campaign there viable. If ever there was an electorate that is ripe for Gov. Huckabee's mix of economic populism and compassionate Christianity, it's down-trodden Michigan Republican primary voters. McCain won there in 2000 with strong support from Independents and he will direct all of his efforts at getting those independents to double down, one last time. Romney will throw everything he has at Michigan, to avoid elimination. Given a McCain surge and a Romney splurge, it's not hard to imagine a three-way split, with Huckabee doing surprisingly well in the collar counties around Detroit and drawing from the well of his base in the western and northwestern counties. Who knows, he might even win Michigan, which would set up South Carolina for a kill....
A strong Huckabee showing in Michigan and a convincing win in South Carolina would set up a showdown with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in Florida, one that Huckabee could afford to lose. Indeed, he might even want to lose it, if only to fatten Giuliani up for his eventual slaughter on the altar of social conservatism. Again, the longer Huckabee faces two "not Huckabee" candidates, all of whom are alien or anathema to the GOP's core Sunbelt/Christian constituencies, the more likely it is he will eventually emerge victorious in the final showdown, wherever that might occur.And if the results in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary were not bonanza enough, Huckabee got the added boost of Senator Clinton's resurrection from the dead. What better to inflame the passions of Huckabee's more rabid partisans than the renewed prospect of Holy War against the hated Hillary. And what better way could there be to diminish the impact of McCain's revival than a bigger story burying his news.
If this had been a two way race from the beginning - Huckabee vs. someone else - I'd have always considered him a long shot. But in a crowded field, Huckabee's path is quite clear: appeal to evangelicals and blue collar voters. He's proven he can do the first with his showing in Iowa. If he can perform well in Michigan, his coalition will effectively be complete. At that point, it will come down to campaign execution and logistics.
As for McCain, Ellis is precisely right: the pundits have this one all wrong. NH was a huge win and a big comeback, but it isn't at all clear how he translates that into wins in other states. What it will do, however, is force Romney to focus his fire in Michigan away from Huckabee and towards McCain. And if you're Hucakbee, well, that's a very, very good thing.
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