Chris Bowers has a good run-down on the state of play in each state. Here is one of his key findings:
Specifically, because of the other advantages Clinton has on February 5th, there is no path to the nomination for Obama without California. If Obama wins California, he overcomes all of the other advantages Clinton has listed here. If Clinton wins California, her delegate total and narrative all but end the campaign.
I don't get this. According to the NYT, only 129 of California's 441 delegates go to the statewide winner. Of the rest, 241 are distributed on a district-by-district, and 71 are selected by the party. Even assuming all of those go to the state-wide winner, that's still well less than half of the total. It's big, no doubt, but is it everything? Bowers is the expert, but still....
All that said... if I still lived in California, I'd be out working my ass of for Obama right now. Hint hint.
UPDATE: Wait, I get it. If you don't win, it means that you by definition won less than a majority of the districts. At best, the loser of the popular vote wins about 25% of the total number of delegate. Realistically, they get far less. With 441 delegates at stake, California really is a must-win state.
And in the end that's probably a good thing. The Democratic candidate can't win the presidency without winning California, so they damn well better be able to win it in the primaries!
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