The Fix is in:
From 1998 to 2004, 98 percent of all House incumbents who ran for re-election were victorious. That figure dropped to 94.5 percent in 2006 as 22 incumbents -- all Republicans -- were swept away by a national Democratic wave. Still, even in a nationalized election, better than nine in ten incumbents found their way back to Congress.Given those powers of incumbency, each side has focused more and more of late on winning open seats where the sitting member is either retiring or running for some other office.
According to the Cook Political Report's indispensable "House Race Summary," 30 Republicans are calling it quits before the November elections compared to just six Democrats. And, remember, with nearly nine months to go before the elections, there is plenty of time for a few more members to bow out.
A quick glance at the historical record shows the uniqueness of the current House landscape. The last two elections (2006 and 2004) have seen 21 and 19 Republican incumbents, respectively, pass on re-election bids. In fact, not since 1958 were there more Republican retirements over the course of a cycle (27) than today on the GOP side.
As we've noted in this space before, it's not just the quantity of the House retirements but the quality of them that makes this a very dangerous cycle for Republicans. A conservative count reveals that half the seats held by retiring Republican incumbents will be hotly contested by both parties in November -- a large number of ripe targets for Democrats especially when considering their vast financial edge over their GOP rivals currently.
Nominate Obama and we'll see a wave of epic proportions sweep across the nation.
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