AFP:
The 157,000-strong US force in the insurgency-wracked country is currently on track to come down from 19 brigades to 15 by July, a reduction of at least 20,000 troops plus another 7,000 to 10,000 members of support units, according to military commanders in Iraq.
This will bring us back to pre-surge troop levels in Iraq. Given that there has been virtually no political progress since the start of the surge, it is reasonable to expect that we'll see a fairly significant spike in violence over the course of the summer. And yes, that's beyond the spike we are already seeing.
McCain's comeback has been based almost entirely on his support for the surge. But the surge comes to an end this summer, and if violence spikes, what can McCain possibly say? His is a single-issue campaign, and even with the surge he finds himself on the opposite side of the issue from most voters. And yet somehow this man is supposed to be able to win in the fall? I just don't see it.
UPDATE: Go read Foreign Policy for an update they term "some worrying signs on Iraq."
UPDATE: On the other hand, if this is true, it is genuinely positive news.
Subscribe to this blog's feed
