No matter what happens on Super Tuesday, the race for the Democratic nomination is virtually guaranteed to go deep into March and April. And as one of Marc Ambinder's readers points out here, February favors Obama in a big way.
If Obama can win enough delegates Tuesday to just keep it close enough to stay in the game then the calendar in the period before March 4th sets up pretty well for him. The next contests are spread out and give him a chance to build momentum once again leading into March 4th.To wit: Feb 9: Washington caucus (he does well in caucus states, and Seattle is educated, upscale mecca)
Feb 12: Virginia is diverse, with Tim Kaine endorsement. Maryland is diverse, big black vote. DC is his for the taking. This one night alone will bring Big Mo on TV (a Tuesday night in prime time).
Feb 19: Wisconsin is anti-war, lots of students. Obama could compete here. Hawaii on same night gives him padded win and nice personal storyline.
That's it until March 4th. He could go in to that date with renewed momentum.
And March 4th is Ohio and Texas, two states with tons of delegate. Unlike the states in Super Tuesday, however, Obama will have plenty of time to campaign in each of these places in person. That, combined with the momentum he should be able to build in the next couple of weeks, should give him a good shot to win in both places.
The key to how all this plays out, I think, will be Obama's performance in a few key Super Tuesday states: NJ, NY, CT, MA, and CA. All 5 states are places Clinton was expected to win fairly easily, but all have tightened considerably over the past few days. If the current polls hold, he'll be able to claim growing momentum. If he manages to convert one or two of these states into a win, his momentum could be huge.
I'll be doing GOTV here in Mass all day Monday and most of the day Tuesday. What's your plan?
Subscribe to this blog's feed
