+ Rain, snow and sleet in the forecast for Ohio tomorrow. As it did in Maine, I suspect this will benefit Obama. Why? Older voters are more likely to support Hillary, and they also are more likely to be bothered by foul weather.
+ Joe Klein makes no sense:
A few days ago, I criticized the Clinton spinsters for stupid, implausible horse race expectations spin--they said Obama had to win everywhere in order to be considered a winner on March 4--and so it's only fair to note that Obama spinster David Plouffe is now doing the very same thing:
If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins - and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.Plouffe's statement is marginally less obnoxious than the Clinton spin, since it happens to be true: If Clinton doesn't start Winning...Big...Everywhere, she's not going to win the nomination...But the Obama campaign has been notable for usually refusing to indulge in this sort of spin-nonsense--and so it's notable that they're doing it now.
Notice that Joe simultaneously acknowledges that what Plouffe says is true and bashes Plouffe for engaging in "spin-nonsense." Since when is the truth nonsensical spin?
+ This Goolsbee thing really does seem to me to be harming Obama, particularly in Ohio.
+ Marc Ambinder has an excellent state-of-the-race Q and A here. Josh Marshall looks at the polls here. Jonathan Chait has a great "what to watch on Tuesday" post here.
+ Bill Richardson has effectively endorsed Obama. My prediction is that barring huge wins by Hillary tomorrow night, you will see a flood of Obama endorsements from the other Supers over the rest of the next week. As Ambinder has explained, without huge wins tomorrow, the math makes it virtually impossible for Hillary to win without a full-on implosion by Obama. Outside of Hillaryland, no one - particularly not the party elites - wants to see this drag on for another 2 months. And if the Supers move en mass to Obama, it is over.
+ This statement from Clinton's team makes me think I should double down on what I just wrote:
"if Clinton wins the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, she's staying in the race. Even if she loses the delegate race in Texas."
Delegates are the only thing that matters at this point. If she loses the delegate race in Texas, she will fall so far behind Obama that she would need to win 65+% of all of the remaining delegates. Given that Obama is likely to post wins in states like Wyoming, Montana, Mississippi, and a few other places, she would actually need to win something like 75% of the delegates in the places she has a shot at winning. Barring an Obama implosion, that will not happen. Thus, it is up to the Supers to bring this thing to a close. And yes, that is precisely the role they are supposed to play in this very bizarre system.
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