Might as well go on the record with this....
TODAY:
Texas: On the strength of early voting, Obama pulls out a narrow win in the popular vote, and a slightly bigger win in overall delegates.
Ohio: Miserable weather depresses turnout, allowing Obama to make up for HRC's advantage in early voting. Final result is a 2 point spread either way, and a near even split on delegates.
Vermont: Big win for Obama, and a good delegate net for Obama.
Rhode Island: Strong GOTV ground game allows Obama to close within 5 points of HRC.
SATURDAY:
Wyoming: Big win for Obama in the caucuses.
TUESDAY:
Mississippi Big win for Obama in the primary
SUPER DELEGATES:
Look for lots of movement over the coming week, with many taking Bill Richardson's approach: "For the good of the party, and because the delegate math makes a Clinton victory virtually impossible, this thing needs to end."
Clinton will naturally resist this initially, but the pressure will increase after Saturday and Tuesday. Beyond that, however, my crystal ball cannot see.
My thoughts, for whatever they are worth....
Adding...
It is the Clinton-McCain tag team phenomenon that will push the Supers over the edge. The idea that a Democrat would team up with a Republican to attack a fellow Democrat, and that they would do so by openly suggesting that the Republican is better qualified to lead the nation, is something that a political party cannot stand for if it is to be a viable organization. At this point, my hunch is that many of the Supers are simply waiting to get past today before they try and actively push Clinton out of the race.
"How could they do this?" a few of you have written to ask. I suggested one approach above. By making public statements similar to Gov. Richardson, they could blunt any momentum she might gain from tonight's contests. More importantly, however, they could simply announce their decision to endorse Obama. Given that neither candidate can win at this point without the Supers, were enough of them to openly move to Obama - and here I'm thinking 20+ over the course of the next week to 10 days - you're likely to see a cascade begin. No one will want to be the last to announce, and if enough break over a short period of time, they can bring this thing to an end.
Would I prefer the voters have their say? Of course. But that's not how this system was designed, and we must live with the rules that were agreed to in advance. No candidate can win without the Supers, so whether you like it or not, they will have a key role in this process. The question - and really, it is the only question - is will their role be to ratify the candidate who has won the most pledged delegates, or will it be to override the results of the primaries and caucuses to pick the person who is in second place? Those are the choices in the world as it is, even if we would prefer otherwise. Stay focused on reality, here. Always.
UPDATE: Don't believe me? Believe Tom Brokaw. Obama apparently has 50 delegates just waiting for the right moment to announce. I'd written above that it would only take 20+ in a short span to start a cascade. Were all 50 to announce over the next week, this thing would be over.
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