This one is all Marc Ambinder. After playing with one of those fancy delegate calculators that are apparently all the rage, he's come up with the precise scenario that would leave Clinton and Obama tied at the end of the primary process.
Save these predictions, because you'll need them. In addition to the state-by-state breakdowns, it also assumes a 60/40 Super Delegate split in favor of Clinton. (I don't know if this includes the 2 Supers Obama picked up today). Under or over-performances anywhere along the path moves us closer or further from this key dividing line.
Here are the details of the scenario that leaves things in a tie:
And here's what small adjustments to the Super Delegate math does to the totals:
If I change the superdelegate allocation to 60% to 40% in the favor of Obama, he wins the nomination by 26 delegates.
If the superdelegates split down the middle -- there are roundabout 352 of them, in Forbes's estimation -- Obama is 14 votes short.
The potential wild cards? Florida and Michigan. But remember, Clinton only won 50% of the vote in Florida, and only 55% in Michigan, two states where neither candidate campaigned. Those numbers are far more likely to be a ceiling than a floor. At best, she's likely to net 30 from those two.
UPDATE: One thing worth noting explicitly here. The percentages in this scenario are the percentage of the delegates, and not the popular vote. Thus, when it says 55/45 for PA, for example, that's 55% of all delegates for Clinton. And given the way the delegate allocation rules in PA favor Obama, this is a very important distinction.
Also worth adding...
Via Brad DeLong, here's the calendar going forward:
Saturday, March 8: Wyoming Caucus 18 delegates
Tuesday, March 11: Mississippi Primary 40 delegatesTuesday, April 22: Pennsylvania Primary 188 delegates
Saturday, May 3: Guam 9 delegates
Tuesday, May 6: Indiana Primary 84 delegates
Tuesday, May 6: North Carolina Primary 134 delegates
Tuesday, May 13: West Virginia Primary 39 delegates
Tuesday, May 20: Kentucky Primary 60 delegates
Tuesday, May 20: Oregon Primary 65 delegates
Tuesday, June 3: Montana Primary 24 delegates
Tuesday, June 3: South Dakota Primary 23 delegates
Saturday, June 7: Puerto Rico Caucus 63 delegates
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