NYT: U.S. Adapts Cold-War Idea to Fight Terrorists
In the days immediately after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, members of President Bush's war cabinet declared that it would be impossible to deter the most fervent extremists from carrying out even more deadly terrorist missions with biological, chemical or nuclear weapons.
Since then, however, administration, military and intelligence officials assigned to counterterrorism have begun to change their view. After piecing together a more nuanced portrait of terrorist organizations, they say there is reason to believe that a combination of efforts could in fact establish something akin to the posture of deterrence, the strategy that helped protect the United States from a Soviet nuclear attack during the cold war.Interviews with more than two dozen senior officials involved in the effort provided the outlines of previously unreported missions to mute Al Qaeda's message, turn the jihadi movement's own weaknesses against it and illuminate Al Qaeda's errors whenever possible....
But over the six and a half years since the Sept. 11 attacks, many terrorist leaders, including Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, have successfully evaded capture, and American officials say they now recognize that threats to kill terrorist leaders may never be enough to keep America safe.
So American officials have spent the last several years trying to identify other types of "territory" that extremists hold dear, and they say they believe that one important aspect may be the terrorists' reputation and credibility with Muslims.
Under this theory, if the seeds of doubt can be planted in the mind of Al Qaeda's strategic leadership that an attack would be viewed as a shameful murder of innocents -- or, even more effectively, that it would be an embarrassing failure -- then the order may not be given, according to this new analysis.
It took us six years to figure out that religious extremists are motivated in part by what fellow believers think of them? Are you kidding me?
Terrorists hold little or no terrain, except on the Web. "Al Qaeda and other terrorists' center of gravity lies in the information domain, and it is there that we must engage it," said Dell L. Dailey, the State Department's counterterrorism chief....
Even as security and intelligence forces seek to disrupt terrorist operations, counterterrorism specialists are examining ways to dissuade insurgents from even considering an attack with unconventional weapons. They are looking at aspects of the militants' culture, families or religion, to undermine the rhetoric of terrorist leaders.For example, the government is seeking ways to amplify the voices of respected religious leaders who warn that suicide bombers will not enjoy the heavenly delights promised by terrorist literature, and that their families will be dishonored by such attacks. Those efforts are aimed at undermining a terrorist's will.
"I've got to figure out what does dissuade you," said Lt. Gen. John F. Sattler, the Joint Chiefs' director of strategic plans and policy. "What is your center of gravity that we can go at? The goal you set won't be achieved, or you will be discredited and lose face with the rest of the Muslim world or radical extremism that you signed up for."
Six years to figure out that this is a battle of ideas and words and not bullets and bombs?
"Obviously, hard-core terrorists will be the hardest to deter," Mr. Vickers said. "But if we can deter the support network -- recruiters, financial supporters, local security providers and states who provide sanctuary -- then we can start achieving a deterrent effect on the whole terrorist network and constrain terrorists' ability to operate.
"We have not deterred terrorists from their intention to do us great harm," Mr. Vickers said, "but by constraining their means and taking away various tools, we approach the overall deterrent effect we want."
Six years to figure out that without a network of supporters terrorists cannot pull off complex plots? Are you kidding me?
Remember when Kerry said that the War on Terror should be more like police work and less like military action? Remember when half of the country laughed at him? Funny, that. Turns out he was right.
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