Well now this is interesting. Apparently the delegate allocation rules in PA are even more favorable for Obama than were the ones in Texas. Anyone want to place bets on whether or not the folks in Hillaryland have figured this out yet?
First off, from GreenPapers:
158 of 188 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Pennsylvania Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.
103 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 19 congressional districts.
CD 9: 3 delegates
CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each
CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each
CDs 6: 6 delegates each
CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each
CD 2: 9 delegatesIn addition, 55 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
35 at-large National Convention delegates
20 Pledged PLEOs
The bold and italics are translations of analysis from Fester @ Newshoggers. The bold are districts where Obama should do quite well, while the italics are places Clinton should dominate. The key here is that Clinton's strength comes in low delegate districts, meaning that she'd have to kill Obama there to gain much of a delegate advantage. In CD9, for example, he'd have to fall below the 15% threshold for her to do any better than 2 to 1. Meanwhile, in CD2, Obama starts picking up extra delegates for every 9% he clears above the 58% mark .
The short version? Its not hard to imagine a scenario where he loses the state by 5% but still wins more delegates than her. And if that doesn't make more of a mess of things, nothing will.
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