So I just got home from the film series to discover that all the networks have already called it for Clinton. No surprise there, I guess. What matters here is the spread, and more than that the delegate count. But we won't know that for hours, so until then we're going to hear a bunch of nonsense from the pundits. Starting with, apparently, a debate over how Democratic voters feel about the other candidate.
To understand this particular exit poll data, all you need to do is think about yourself being interviewed by an exit pollster. Speaking for myself, If I were voting today I can say with absolute certainty that I would tell an exit pollster that I would not vote for Clinton were she to steal the nomination after this point. But come the fall, I can also say with absolute certainty that I would hold my nose and vote for her, because no matter how she got there, she'd be infinitely better than McCain. But would I admit that to an exit pollster? Of course not.
Moreover, I don't find it at all surprising that the answer to this particular question shows more and more polarization the longer this primary process drags on. People are choosing sides, and then they are digging in. That's just basic human psychology, and as such it is entirely predictable.
So here's how I think this will play out. Unless the Supers decide to move in the next two weeks, this thing is going to drag on for another month. Throughout that period, the pundits will continue to wail on about how this is tearing the party in half. But by mid-June it will be all over and Obama will have won. July and August will be spent doing behind the scenes campaign and party building, and barring a world changing event we'll head into the convention with the party unity question hanging over our heads. But then during that last week the convention will be held, and Clinton will give a gracious speech that gets crazy media attention. Many will call it the speech of her life. On the last night, Obama will deliver the speech he's been waiting his entire life to deliver, and everyone - and I mean everyone - will swoon. And at that point the story will shift to "Obama the uniter," and suddenly all will be well. And better than that, Obama will get all the credit for it, even though it was entirely inevitable.
It may not seem like it right now, but all of this is good for the party. We're adding millions of new voters to the rolls across the nation. Many of them are quite young, so they are establishing a partisan attachment that will last for most of their lives.
Deep breaths.... Deep breaths....
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