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Good News / Bad News From Iraq

Talk about a mixed bag. NYT:

BAGHDAD -- Under pressure from Iraqi government troops and the American military, Moktada al-Sadr called on his followers to stop the bloodshed, unite with all Iraqis and focus their firepower on driving out the "occupation forces," meaning the United States military and its foreign allies.


The statement, read at Friday prayers, appeared to be part of a carefully calibrated political strategy of reaching out to his "Iraqi brothers" while threatening any Iraqis who work with the occupying forces.

It echoes the one Mr. Sadr, a rabidly nationalist Shiite cleric, made last year when he asked his Mahdi militia to halt its most aggressive activities, including most sectarian killings. That gambit improved his image nationally while allowing him to build up his own forces.

In the statement Mr. Sadr, who is believed to be in Iran, issued eight edicts in an effort to open the way for a negotiation with the Iraqi government, but also to shore up his own support.

He instructed his followers to "to wage open war against the Americans" but forbade them from "raising a hand against another Iraqi citizen." He also urged the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police to stop cooperating with the Americans, and he asked the government to purge the militias within the ranks of the police and the army. He said he would oppose any American military bases in Iraq.

He also issued a "final warning" to the Iraqi government to end its crackdown or face an "open war until liberation."

But he quickly softened the threat, saying, "If we have threatened with an open war until liberation, we have meant by it a war against the occupier."

On the one hand, it is a sign that Iraqis may indeed be reconciling with one another in ways that might profoundly change the dynamic there. On the other, its as near to a declaration of open war against us as al-Sadr could issue without actually declaring war. If I thought the current administration was in any way inclined to take this as an opportunity to begin a serious drawdown of our forces, that would be a good thing. Given that they do not in fact want to leave Iraq, however....

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