We ignored bin Laden's explicit statements that he wanted to create a quagmire for us in Iraq, so I'm not holding my breath that we'll pay any more attention to this. But still... in a sane world, stories like this would matter.
Here's al Qaeda's #2 man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, on how his organization sees a fight between the US and Iraq playing out:
The dispute between America and Iran is a real dispute based on the struggle over areas of influence, and the possibility of America striking Iran is a real possibility. As for what might happen in the region, I can only say that major changes will occur in the region, and the situation will be in the interest of the Mujahideen if the war saps both of them. If, however, one of them emerges victorious, its influence will intensify and fierce battles will begin between it and the Mujahideen, except that the Jihadi awakening currently under way and the degeneration state of affairs of the invaders in Afghanistan and Iraq will make it impossible for Iran or America to become the sole decision-maker in the region.
In case this isn't perfectly clear, al-Zawahiri is saying that al Qaeda wants a war between Iran and the US because it hates both of us. Just like the war in Iraq, that war would sap both sides, strengthening al Qaeda's role in the region. Assuming that he is telling the truth here, it is reasonable for us to assume that al Qaeda would work to make such a war a reality. After all, if you can get your two enemies to fight one another, you can get them to do most of your work for you, right?
John McCain loves to tell us how we must listen to what al Qaeda says. We cannot leave Iraq, he alleges, because to do so would allow al Qaeda to claim a great victory. I've long argued that this misunderstands bin Laden's argument - he initially wanted to draw us into this conflict to sap our strength, and now that we have complied he will claim victory no matter what we do next. As a result, we should ignore him and do what we judge to be in our own best interest - but that isn't how McCain sees it. For McCain bin Laden's word is gold. Except, it would appear, in cases where his word conflicts with McCain's pre-existing beliefs. In those instances bin Laden and Zawahiri apparently must be ignored.
We will not win this war until we understand how and why our enemies fight. Clearly there is no better way to do that than to listen to what they are saying and analyze it carefully. al Qaeda is Sunni. Iran is Shia. Zawahiri's statements on IRaqn are perfectly consistent with these very basic facts. In a more sane world, this would matter.
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