McCain has the look of an Internet stock circa 1999: Great numbers, lousy fundamentals.
Cohn worries, however, that if the Dems don't wrap up this race soon, they won't have sufficient time to educate voters about McCain's flaws. That's to some extent true, but I think people tend to push this worry to far.
As I've written numerous times in the past, I won't be at all surprised if there is a fairly dramatic escalation of violence in Iraq between now and the fall as all of our Surge battalions come home. Were this escalation to happen, it would simultaneously present a serious problem for the logic of McCain's candidacy while strengthening the logic of Obama's candidacy.
In addition, I fully expect our economic outlook to grow substantially worse over the next six months. Food and energy prices are directly tied to one another through both fertilizer production and transportation costs. The impacts of the credit crisis are going to continue to unravel throughout the economy in slow motion over the coming months. And the problems in housing and mortgage foreclosures will continue to spread. Given McCain's ideological attachment to minimal government intervention in all of these areas, these developments will also seriously challenge the logic of his campaign.
Is it important, perhaps even vital, that the Democrats get out in front on each of these issues? Absolutely it is. But I do not think the window of opportunity to do so is nearly as small as Cohn suggests. The world, after all, is not static, and each time a major event changes the status quo a new opportunity opens to frame and discuss the underlying issues. Would I prefer that this were all wrapped up in the next few weeks? Yes. But unlike most people, the longer this thing goes on, the less concerned I am about timing.
On June 3, Montana and South Dakota will hold the last events of this primary season. Assuming that they will still matter to the final outcome of the race - and there is no reason that I can see to doubt that - we will likely see previous patterns hold. Prior to these events, the Democratic Party in each state will sign up tens or perhaps even hundreds of thousands of new members, and on election day each will see an unprecedented surge in turnout. Not only will that have important ramifications in the fall - both for the presidential election and for races all the way to the bottom of the ballot - it has the potential to reshape politics in those states for years, perhaps even decades, to come.
Focus on the long term and you will see that this election is about building institutional and behavioral legacies that will, if nurtured properly over the next 5-10 years, reshape our politics for decades to come. This isn't just about 2008, nor is it even primarily about 2008. We need to remember that as we work for victory in the fall.
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