Everyone else has already linked to this article, but in case you missed it, George Packer's take on the fall of conservatism in the latest New Yorker is an absolute must-read. It's looong but worthwhile. So worthwhile, in fact, that I'm not going to do an excerpt.
Adding... if you missed my previous post on the dynamics of the upcoming election, now would be a good time to review it. Packer gets down much deeper in the weeds than I did, but the underlying argument is essentially the same.
UPDATE: OK, I can't resist. Rereading this article, I have to point something out. Two quotes taken out of order for a bit of compare and contrast, both involving former Bush speechwriter David Frum.
One:
I asked Frum if the movement still existed. "We'll have people formed by the conservative movement making decisions for the next thirty to forty years," he said. "But will they belong to a self-conscious and cohesive conservative movement? I don't think so. Because their movement did its work. The core task was to stop and reverse, to some degree, the drift of democratic countries after the Second World War toward social democracy. And that was done."
Two:
In the new book, Frum asks, "Who agreed that conservatives should defend the dysfunctional American health system from all criticism?" Well--he did! Frum now identifies health care as the chief anxiety of the middle class. But governing well, in conservative terms, doesn't mean spending more money. It means doing what neither Reagan nor Bush did: mastering details, knowing the options, using caution--that is, taking government seriously. The policy ideas in "Comeback" rely on the market more than on the state and are relatively small-bore, such as a government campaign to raise awareness about the dangers of obesity.
About that social democracy thing...
If you had to name one policy area over the past 40 years where social democracies spectacularly succeeded and our liberal democracy almost entirely failed, it would be health care. SD's achieved lower costs, better outcomes, and universal coverage, while we managed to achieve precisely the reverse. Frum simultaneously admits that health care is his movement's greatest greatest failure, yet considers its history of blocking the "drift of democratic countries... toward social democracy" conservatism's greatest success. Until he and his fellow travelers understand the deep contradictions in that world view, they are going to have a very, very hard time winning elections and returning to power.
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