As you examine the data, remember: realignments are a multi-step process. In many, many cases, people don't convert directly from one party to another. First they move from their old alignment to "independent," and then they more from independent to a new party.
So it isn't just that the percentage of self-identified Democrats is rising while self-id'ed Republicans is falling, it's also that the percentage of independents is rising, too. Nominate the right person this fall to top the Democratic ticket, and you could take a major step towards building a coalition the size FDR's. But remember too that if this is true, 2008 will be like 1932, not 1936. It takes at least 2 presidential cycles to lock in the changes, not one.
This is just the beginning.
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