Before I get to today's news, a few more general thoughts on the election...
In addition to the hand-wringing over how Obama should respond to attacks from the McCain campaign (see yesterday's post for my thoughts on that), there's also been quite a bit of grumbling about Obama's supposed inability to pull away from McCain in all of the national polling. A few things here:
First of all, it's August. Who cares what the polls say today?
Second, looking at the RCP poll average , McCain hasn't been ahead of Obama head-to-head matchup since early March, and even that was inside the margin of error. This is a problem for Obama exactly why?
Third, just how much do people think Obama is actually supposed to win the general election by? The last time we had an election where one candidate beat another by double digits was way back in 1984. That was Reagan vs Mondale, an election where a popular incumbent completed a realignment that he had begun 4 years prior. And in 1980, Reagan won by a bit less than 10%, thanks in no small part to an assist by John Anderson.
Fourth: Remember 2000? National polling data is meaningless. What you want to look at is the state-by-state counts. And on those, even in the most conservative scenarios possible, things are still looking great. No no, really.... they are.
Finally, fifth. Why can't he "pull away" from McCain? Because he hasn't even started to try! This is what Obama does. He starts quitely, putting his ground game in place fully before he makes his move. It's what he did when he won his first race in the Senate, and its what he did when he took out Clinton. This is his M.O. because it works for him.
And besides, it's August, people. Relax. The campaign doesn't start for a fef more weeks, OK?
Now on to today's news....
+ You remember those Al Qaeda in Iraq guys? You know, the ones who weren't there when we invaded, but who are there now, making Iraq the "central front?" Thye've left Iraq and headed for Afghanistan. That's right: AQI is now AQIA. Al Qaeda in Iraq in Afghanistan
+ Ron Suskind makes one hell of an allegation in his latest book.
+ John McCain has long had problems with social conservatives. But recently he's been trying to make amends, right? Riiiiiight....
+ Jay Newton-Small writes today about a subject very near and dear to my heart: the Mountain West is ripe for realignment because sportsmen finally understand that conservation benefits their way of life, too. When the mountains turn blue this year, this shift will be a big but nevertheless unde-rreproted part of the story.
+ How did I miss this before? Ana Marie Cox is married to Tom "what's the matter with Kansas" Frank? Really?
+ The debate moderators have been announced. Thank god there's no Charllie Gibson! And Jim Lehrer gets the first event, too. It could have been much worse.
+ Not that the GOP candidate for Senate in Colorado stood much of a chance anyway, but still.... his son had a Facebook page with a banner that said "slavery gets shit done." Really? And please, I don't want to hear your "these aren't the values my parents raised me with" nonsense. Actions, not words, are what we judge people by here. It's what you do in life that matters, not what you say. If your parents didn't teach you that, they didn't teach you anything, kid.
+ Very smart play by Nancy Pelosi here.
+ What's the Power of O? 1 million plus, it would seem.
+ Definitely, Maybe... Life on Mars
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