For once, I'm gonna disagree with Chuck - sort of...
It's not that I disagree with his assessment of where we stand now; its that I think its going to shift towards Obama as we move closer to the election. Watching clips today of McCain, both in his stump speeches and his TV appearances, it was clear that he had tightened up. For the first week after the Palin pick he was loose, and in many ways reminded me of the 2000 version of himself. But watching him tonight, all that was gone. Watch for yourself:
Not only is McCain back to that horrible mix of blinking and grimacing that he does when he's spitting nonsense, but tonight he actually physically pulled back from the camera on several occasions as well. He's on the defensive, and he's got no one to blame but himself.
This whole "the fundamentals of the economy are the American worker" thing is really dumb, and McCain surely knows that. Worse, after spending the better part of last week trying to foolishly claim that Obama meant "Palin" when he said "pig," McCain can't just say "sorry, but everyone misspeaks now and then." Now he's got his own gaffe, only this time its a real one on a real subject that he's made numerous times. Imagine if Obama had actually meant to call Palin a pig, and after being called on it, he defended himself by saying that he uses the word "pig" differently than everyone else in the world.
Add to that the fact that Palin's numbers are tanking at the very same moment pollsters were expecting McCain's bounce would fade, and I've got a whole bunch of reasons to think this thing is going to turn Obama's way over the next week to 10 days.
The short version? Right now, Chuck's math is right. But I expect to see some fairly sizable shifts over the next 2-3 weeks. Wherever we are heading into the third weekend in October, that's where I'm putting my money.
