McCain's convention bounce appears to be significant - he's up 49%-44% in today's Gallup. And he seems determined to test my theory that he's the equivalent of Jimmy Carter in 1980:
McCain has led Obama in each of the three individual nights' data comprising today's three-day rolling average, but the real question is whether he can sustain the lead as voter excitement around the convention fades. Since 1964, the first election year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces, there have been only two examples in which one candidate consistently trailed until the time of his party's convention, but took the lead after and never relinquished it. Those occurred in 1988 for the elder George Bush and 1992 for Bill Clinton.
But there are also examples where a consistently trailing candidate took the lead after his party's convention, but later relinquished it -- Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Al Gore in 2000.
