NYT:
A coded French diplomatic cable leaked to a French newspaper quotes the British ambassador in Afghanistan as predicting that the NATO-led military campaign against the Taliban will fail. That was not all. The best solution for the country, the ambassador said, would be installing an "acceptable dictator," according to the newspaper.
"The current situation is bad, the security situation is getting worse, so is corruption, and the government has lost all trust," the British envoy, Sherard Cowper-Coles, was quoted as saying by the author of the cable, François Fitou, the French deputy ambassador to Kabul.The two-page cable -- which was sent to the Élysée Palace and the French Foreign Ministry on Sept. 2, and was leaked to the investigative and satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîné, which printed excerpts in its Wednesday issue -- said that the NATO-led military presence was making it harder to stabilize the country.
"The presence of the coalition, in particular its military presence, is part of the problem, not part of its solution," Sir Sherard was quoted as saying. "Foreign forces are the lifeline of a regime that would rapidly collapse without them. As such, they slow down and complicate a possible emergence from the crisis."
Within 5 to 10 years, the only "realistic" way to unite Afghanistan would be for it to be "governed by an acceptable dictator," the cable said, adding, "We should think of preparing our public opinion" for such an outcome.
The bizarre thing about that last paragraph is that anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of Afghan history would have predicted that from the start. Afghanistan has been ungovernable for as long as there have been governments. Between its natural geography (the Hindu Kush runs straight through its center), its political geography (its the hub connecting four different historical centers of power), and its political culture, it is almost possible to control. Unless, of course, brutality is your thing, in which case if you work hard enough, you just might be able to bring the region under your control.
But western-styled democracy? I'm sorry, but that was never going to happen.
