January 2, 2009

On Caroline

Honestly, I don't really have an opinion. The constitution grants the states the right to determine for themselves how vacancies are filled, and some states have chosen to go with gubernatorial appointments. And sure thing, that's not particularly democratic, but that doesn't much offend me. The alternative is to call a special election, and given that voter turnout for those things is extremely low, well...

And then there's this broader point from Yglesias:

...some of the hostility to dynasticism stems from a sort of misguided desire to pretend that electoral outcomes are this incredibly rational process. So if we all point at Caroline Kennedy and say she's only under serious consideration because of her name, then maybe if we all object loudly enough to this it'll turn out that the other 99 Senators are there because they've passed a set of rigorous credentialing examinations or something.


But of course that's not how things work at all. The whole business of electioneering is full of irrationality and tradition all the way from top to bottom. The notion that all members of the Kennedy family are ex officio considered plausible candidates for public office is weird, but it's a particular oddity that exists against background conditions that are also odd.

The entire system of democracy is a mess from top to bottom. But as bad as it is, its better than all of the known alternatives, right?

Bottom line: Don't judge these appointments against some mythical version of democracy that exists only in your head. Judge them against the real world.

December 18, 2008

Center-Right vs. Center-Left

Bush:

"I still think we're a right-of-center country," the President responded when asked whether the election offered proof that the ideological center of the country had shifted to the left.

I don't understand this whole center-this-and-that thing. Isn't wherever a majority happens to be at any given moment by definition the center? And if this is a democratic republic in which the majority rules under a series of checks and balances, then doesn't it by definition mean that we are in some sense always in the center? Or to put it another way, if we are not in the center, doesn't it mean that our democracy isn't functioning properly?

I understand the whole left/right thing... and I understand and support the idea of narratives, frames, and realignments, and thus that the center in some sense can be moved around... but...

This idea that we are either a "center-right" or "center-left" country just doesn't make any sense to me. How would we define what the center is without making reference to the ideas and beliefs of the citizens? This isn't math, and it's not geography. Right?

December 7, 2008

Clay Shirky @ Boing Boing

Shirky is guest blogging over at Boing Boing. Some highlights...

One:

For most of the life of the Republic, it was not just possible but imperative to say different things in different places -- what politician would tell auto workers and orange pickers the same thing! That old world had a stake driven through its heart by the Macaca Moment; every politician knows that anything they say to anyone, they say to everyone everywhere.


Now, the job of saying one thing to one group, and something different to another, falls to the supporters. The social solidarity of weblogs and mailing lists replaces the old world of media buys and Chamber of Commerce speeches, recreating through the echo chamber what was once the province of geography and cost. Dear Mr. Obama was music to Republican ears while being inert in Democratic hands; expect it to be a template for 2010.

Another way of saying this is that digital communication networks have tilted the balance of power away from the elites and towards the people. Although there are all kinds of positive benefits that will come from this, its likely going to be a rough transition, both for politicians and for the political media.

In a later post, Shirky goes on to make some related predictions:

...candidates starting exploratory committees for 2012 may try to harness partisan amateurs to find 'gotcha's in the increasingly large but hard-to-search audio and video archives coming online, through 'tag it and flag it' searches of an opponent's historical multimedia record.


Assume that every potential candidate for president has generated an average 100 hours of audio or video a year to date; that to avoid wild goose chases, you want every minute listened to or looked by ~5 different people; and that the average volunteer will review ~10 minutes of audio or video. With those constraints, a campaign would need something like 30,000 volunteers to cover every minute of a decade's worth of public speech, per opponent. (You can move the input numbers up and down some, but 10^4 users per decade of coverage seems like the right order of magnitude.)

These numbers are high, but not insuperable, and being able to swing this kind of distributed opposition research during the primaries may be an early show of strength. Howard Dean introduced the net as a fund raising tool, and Obama as a proselytizing and 'get out the vote' tool, but I think NakedEmperorNews has shown us the template for distributed opposition research and 'gotcha' political ads created off the candidate's books.

That sentence I've put in bold shows just how much the electoral game is about to change. Obama's use of the Internet was a beginning, not an end. Technological networks are fragmenting political power in ways that we are only just barely beginning to understand.

April 16, 2008

I'm the Gov. Pete Wilson, You Know, The Baddest Gov. To Ever Grab A Mike and Go... BOOOM!

In honor of former CA Gov. Pete Wilson's apparent return to politics, here's the lyrics to one of the best Dead Kennedys remakes ever: The Disposable Heroes of Hiphoprisy's California Uber Alles:

I'm your governor Pete Wilson ya know The baddest governor to ever grab the mic and go BOOOM !

Gimme a budget and watch me hack it !
Gimme a beat and I'll show you how to jack it !
I give the rich a giant tax loophole
I leave the poor living in a poophole
At time when Aids is in a crisis
I cut health care and I raise prices
Sales tax, snack tax, excise tax
Information attack with a newspaper tax
Hit the pocket books of working families
Increase tuition at the universities
Some day I'll command all o' you
Even your kids are gonna pray to me in school
Soon I'm gonna be the president
You might remember the last one this state sent

Califoria ueber alles
California above all others
[Dead Kennedy's:] California ueber alles (2x)

I'm so proud to know the Great Communicator
Wanna be known as the Great Incarcerator
I'll blow environmentalists away
And I'll be the fuhrer some day
I'll keep cuttin' Public Education
even though we rang 54th in the nation
I've got a plan for all the minorities
Send'em to the California Youth Authorities
From San Francisco Urban Elementary
to Pelican Bay State Penitentiary
There they can work for the master race
and always wear a happy face
Close your eyes, it can't happen here
Big Brother in a squad car's comin' near
Come enjoy the surf and the sun
and help California number one !

Califoria ueber alles
California above all others
[Dead Kennedy's:] California ueber alles (2x)

Now it's 1992
Knock knock at your front door, yo guess who ?!
It's the suede denim secret police
They've come to your house for your longhaired niece
Gonna send her off to a camp
'cause she's been accused of growing hemp
Don't worry it's only a shower
And now for your clothes here's a pretty flower
Gonna die on malathion gas
The serpent's egg has always been hatched
People starvin' and livin' in the streets
because they tried to mess with me President Pete

Califoria ueber alles
California above all others
[Dead Kennedy's:] California ueber alles (2x)

March 12, 2008

Blogging From Big Sky, Day Four

Some things that happened in the world today while I was flying down the side of a mountain...

+ The Pentagon has completed a massive study of over 600,000 documents captured in Iraq just after the 2003 invasion. And guess what? There was no link between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda! Any guesses what happened next? That's right... the Bush administration decided to suppress the report by releasing it only on CD-ROM. Apparently these inept fools have never heard of the Internet.

+ The Geraldine Ferraro madness apparently continued this morning on GMA and Bill O'Reilly. By the time I got off the mountain, however, Ferraro had been forced to resign from Clinton's campaign.

+ Longtime readers of this blog know that I'm fairly obsessed with the idea that 2008 could be a transformative election for the United States. It's a theory that drives much of my analysis, just as it drives my support for Obama's campaign. Obama gets that a realignment is both possible and likely this year. Clinton, meanwhile, openly denies that a realignment is possible. If you want a small modification of the status quo, vote Clinton. If you want something more, vote Obama. It really is that simple.

+ Not convinced? Here's the polling data from the 10 biggest states in the nation. Ignore the rhetoci coming from Hillaryland - Obama's got an advantage here. Then check out the smaller states. Yup, Obama's got a HUGE advantage there. Remind me again why anyone would want Hillary to be the nominee? Anyone outside of Republicans, that is.

+ There are a million different theories about what the Obama campaign wants done with Michigan and Florida, but so far no one seems to have suggested what I think is most likely to actually happen. By mid-June the primary process will be over, and with or without these two states Obama's lead will be insurmountable. And at that point he'll suggest that the delegations from both states get seated as is.

+ McMegan is absolutely right: The states should have no role whatsoever in controlling the delegate selection process of our political parties. The parties are independent, private groups that are entirely separate from our government. They are not, nor should they ever be, organs of the state. They may be more important than the Elks Lodge, but they are equally private.

+ If you want to understand the real reasons for CENTOM commander Admiral William Fallon's departure yesterday, Tom Ricks is your go-to guy. Among other things, Ricks reports that Gen. Petraeus may take over for Fallon. Also worth reading is Juan Cole. Cole reports that Fallon may have been removed because he continues to believe that the Surge is at best a temporary success. And given the news out of Iraq over the last 48 hours, he's almost certainly right.

+ Believe it or not, after six months of trying, Pelosi has managed to push through a tough new ethics package in the House of Representative. TPM highlights a great part of the long debate - Republicans begged their fellow legislators to vote against the measure out of a sense of "self-preservation."

+ Speaking of House Dems, it looks like they may have outmaneuvered the White House on FISA reform and telecomm immunity. Hard to believe, I know, but knock on wood it might be true!

+ Did partisanship play a role in the Spitzer investigation? Perhaps. Do I care? No. I'm against corruption, period. Republican, Democrat, Independent, I don't care. If they are dirty, go get 'em. Gov. Spitzer should go. So too should Sen. Vitter. Funny how inconsistent those on the right can be about these things, isn't it?

+ AFL-CIO announced today that it is set to spend $53 million this fall to elect a Democrat - any Democrat - as President of the United States.

+ Speaking of McCain, it seems he loves to compare himself to Teddy Roosevelt. Only one problem. He has no idea what TR stood for.

+ Even worse, McCain's self-proclaimed spiritual advisor, Rod Parsley, believes that America was founded in part to destroy the "false religion" of Islam founded by a man who was "a demon spirit."

+ Mark it on your calendar - today is the date on which it became obvious that W. was even more economically out of touch than his father.

February 23, 2008

"Your vote is the difference between choosing heaven and hell."

BlogDad sent this along a few days back...

While walking down the street one day a US senator is tragically hit by a truck and dies.


His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St Peter at the entrance.

'Welcome to heaven,' says St. Peter. 'Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you.' 'No problem, just let me in,' says the man. 'Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.' 'Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,' says the senator.

'I'm sorry, but we have our rules.' And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him. Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people. They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and champagne. Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it is time to go. Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator rises.

The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on heaven where St Peter is waiting for him. 'Now it's time to visit heaven.' So, 24 hours pass with the senator joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns. 'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.' The senator reflects for a minute, then he answers: 'Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.'

So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. Now the doors of the elevator open and he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage. He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above. The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. 'I don't understand,' stammers the senator. 'Yesterday I was here and here was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?

The devil looks at him, smiles and says, 'Yesterday we were campaigning...... Today you voted.

February 15, 2008

McCain, Obama Spar Over Campaign Finance

Looks like the issue of public financing hasn't been settled after all.

Making this pledge was an enormous mistake for Obama, one that I always suspected he would come to regret. Aside from the short-term political implications, the only way we are going to get long-term campaign finance reform is if we can show that the current system is so thoroughly broken that it cannot be repaired. And what better way to do that than overwhelm it with money?

For the record, I'd love one day to get to the point where we have full public financing for all federal campaigns. But we're not going to get there piecemeal. Incrementalism just won't cut it here.


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