I haven't had any time to blog these past two days, but if I had, these would have been the stories I blogged about. + California kids should pay very... [More]
February 1, 2008
February 2, 2008
7 Points
Looks like Hillary Clinton picked up the last little bit of Edwards supporters over the past few days. Gallup: The gap between Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remains... [More]
Yes We Can
I've seen a lot of things in my time watching politics, but I can say with absolute certainty that I've never seen anything like this: That's some serious all-star business... [More]
The Closing Argument, Part IV [LA TIme Endorsement: It Is Time To Turn The Page]
LATimes goes big for Obama: Democrats preparing to vote in Tuesday's California primary can mark their ballots with confidence, knowing that either candidate would make a strong nominee and, if... [More]
Clintonism: Yet Another Anecdote
Here's a great story from a grassroots organizer and former Clinton campaign volunteer that highlights in explicit detail the way the Clinton govern. Why on earth would anyone want four... [More]
It's All A Question Of Time
Via The Plank, this from today's WaPo: With three days to go before Super Tuesday, when roughly half the delegates in the Democratic presidential contest will be awarded, Obama is... [More]
Post-Super Tuesday February Favors Obama
No matter what happens on Super Tuesday, the race for the Democratic nomination is virtually guaranteed to go deep into March and April. And as one of Marc Ambinder's readers... [More]
The Closing Argument, Part I
Over the next 72 hours, I'm going to highlight what I think have been some of the best arguments for Obama and against Clinton. If you haven't yet made up... [More]
The Closing Argument, Part II
Next up is this take on the race from Fareed Zakaria: This is the problem with Hillary Clinton. She is highly intelligent, has real experience and is an attractive candidate.... [More]
"Make Way for the Millennials"
Looks like I have a new book to add to my reading list. Here's the op-ed version, courtesy of WaPo: The scene at American University last week was electric: thousands... [More]
Say It Ain't So!
No Gavin, say it ain't so!... [More]
The Closing Argument, Part V [Idaho Knows]
Ambinder: Obama gets 15,000 in Ada County (Boise), Idaho. That's 7 times the number who caucused in Idaho in 2004. Got that? One rally. One city. 7x the number of... [More]
The Closing Argument, Part III
This one comes from Andrew Sullivan, the prototypical conservative Obama convert: The two candidates can each make a case that he or she is the most electable. Senator Clinton has... [More]
February 3, 2008
Obama Up In CA? [With Multiple National Poll Updates]
Zogby says yes; MSNBC says no. Zogby's other Super Tuesday numbers are also quite good for Barack. Given the way the polls have performed this year, and given Zogby's sketchy... [More]
Worth Remembering On Tuesday
LATimes on the California vote count: But Tuesday's expected volume is only part of the reason the results will probably be delayed. About half of the ballots are expected to... [More]
Number of the Day
2%: Yes. We. Can.... [More]
Mandates!
People like Ezra Klein and Jonathan Cohn may not like it, and on the merits of the issue they may even be right. Nevertheless, I just don't see how you... [More]
Clinton Camp Push-Polling in CA?
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Talking-Points-Memo/~3/228501021/176792.php . The Clintons have yet to respond. If any of my California readers get one of these calls, do me a favor and let me know, OK? And please... [More]
Obama and the Netroots
This is Chris Bowers' strong suit. Read the whole thing to understand this: It feels like the butterfly effect, the Frankenstein monster, or some sort of self-mutating computer virus. The... [More]
35 Years of Change?
McClatchy takes on the Clinton narrative.... [More]
Quote of the Day
"If Barack Obama was a state he'd be California," Shriver said, drawing roars from the crowd. "I mean think about it: diverse, open, smart, independent, oppose tradition, innovative, inspiring, dreamer,... [More]
February 5, 2008
The Closing Argument, The Final Edition
I had planned on writing a lengthy final endorsement for myself, but then I came across this, and I realized I could say it all in a sentence or two.... [More]
February 6, 2008
Super-Duper Tuesday: Initial Reactions
Some very quick thoughts before heading to bed for the night. + On a purely personal note: Phone-banking is very hard, very tiring, and very, very worthwhile - both personally... [More]
Let The Analysis Begin
Here's the plan for today.... First, there will be a series of who knows how many small posts containing bits and bobs from the last 24 hours. There were so... [More]
It's All About The Delegates
Mother Jones posted this prior to Super Tuesday, but it is important to review today. First, on how delegates are apportioned: Under Democratic Party rules, states divide their delegates proportionally... [More]
Clinton Camp Running Out Of Money?
Wow. Ambinder is reporting that the Clintons may have to break into their personal fortune to keep their campaign afloat. The Clinton's are rich, but they aren't Mitt Romney rich.... [More]
More Debates?
Clinton wants one a week, including debates on Fox. The old rule of thumb is that the frontrunner never asks for debates. Ever. Only challengers need and want them. The... [More]
Winning Red States Isn't Enough. Dig Deeper.
An important reminder from Ezra: I think it's worth remembering that Democrats always win Democratic primaries in red states, and neither Obama nor Clinton have done anything to suggest they... [More]
What We Did Last Night In Mass
For everyone who worked the phones last night here in MA, this is for you:... [More]
Chuck Todd's Final Late-Nite Analysis
Obama could catch Clinton as soon as next week. It's all about momentum. Last nights strong showing in places like CT, NJ, NM, and MO shows Obams got it. With... [More]
$275 per Month
More like this, please:... [More]
Prediction Markets
As of today, Intrade has Obama as the frontrunner for the nomination.... [More]
County By County
Very cool interactive maps from the NYT Online.... [More]
Movements v. Campaigns
Ezra: One interesting takeaway of last night's results is that it doesn't seem to be Obama's charisma that's really responsible for his huge, gamechanging wins in Iowa and South Carolina.... [More]
A Thought About Florida
I keep hearing/reading rumors that a proposal for officially sanctioned caucuses in Florida and Michigan may be in the offing. Maybe so, maybe not, I have no idea. But I... [More]
More On Movements v. Campaigns
Judging from everything I have read today, there seems to be a concerted effort by the Clinton camp to portray Obama as the new frontrunner, allowing Clinton to try and... [More]
Follow the Money
It's official: Clinton had to loan her campaign $5 million in January. That brings her January total to $18.5 million, a bit less than half of what Obama raised. It... [More]
About Last Night
Some final thoughts on Super Duper Tuesday. Obama won more states: 13 to 8 Obama won more delegates: See NBC's projections. Obama won the Mountain West: See Idaho, Colorado, Utah,... [More]
About Those Texas Primaries. They Aren't Really Primaries! [With Critical Update]
I didn't know this: Two-thirds of the delegates will be chosen by caucus. That means money, momentum, and grassroots organizing will be the keys to success. Advantage: Obama. [Hat Tip:... [More]
Follow The Money, Part II
Four updates is enough for one post. Time to start a new one.... Credit where credit is due. Tim Tagaris over at OpenLeft caught this last night, prompting this 5am... [More]
Rules for Radicals
Watching the news today about the Clinton campaign's need to self-finance, I couldn't help but think of the following quote from Saul Alinsky's Rules for Radicals: "Power has always derived... [More]
We'll See Your $5 Million...
I'm not usually impressed by fundraising appeals, but this one I just got via email from Obama is good: I was writing a note to you about the state of... [More]
Clinton "Senior Staff" Working Without Pay?
So says Mark Halperin. He broke the story about the loan, so this would seem to be worth believing.... [More]
Money, Money, Money!
And the stories on this are now rolling down on us like a flood.... Politico: Barack Obama’s campaign is on track to raise another $30 million in February, sources close... [More]
Is Virginia The New Clinton Firewall?
Just one small example. Travel schedules for tomorrow: Clinton: Arlington, VA Obama: New Orleans, LA; Omaha, NE MD, DC, LA, and NE should be fairly easy pickups for Obama. Only... [More]
Crystal Clear: The Hillary Clinton Story
Daily Show:... [More]
Lessig: Why I Am 4Barack
It's not the most compelling video I've ever seen, but it is incredibly thorough and well-reasoned. If you have friends who are both on the fence and willing to sit... [More]
No Fear
If more women in America saw this, I can't help but think Obama's gender gap would disappear:... [More]
February 7, 2008
Another Florida-Related Thought
Following up on my previous post about those Florida delegates... I can't help but wonder if the Clinton campaign's attempt back in late January to force the Florida contest back... [More]
Evening Round-Up
No time for serious blogging today, so these quick updates are going to have to do. + Was Hillary actually about to run out of money? Or was it all... [More]
Swagger
This should be interesting: Sen. Barack Obama could withstand any last-minute "swift-boat" attacks from Republicans on his race or past drug use because winning the grueling contest for the Democratic... [More]
February 10, 2008
Obama Goes 4 For 4 Tonight
Nebraska: 68% Obama, 32% Hillary Washington: 68% Obama, 31% Hillary (You really have to see the compare-and-contrast photos here, and check out the Jurisdiction results here.) Louisiana: 57% Obama, 36%... [More]
Ohio
I don't want to get ahead of myself here - Ohio isn't for another 3+ weeks. But still... this is big. The Plain Dealer gives the nod to Obama: Although... [More]
He Can't Win Big States? Nonsense!
Having been crushed in 4 primaries tonight, the Clinton campaign has a new fall back position: Obama wins the small states, but Clinton wins the big states where everyone lives.... [More]
This Is Why You Don't Count Super Delegates
Newsday: NEWARK, N.J. - Recent remarks by Hillary Clinton and former President Clinton prompted one of New Jersey's superdelegates to reconsider her support of the former first lady and move... [More]
Maine For Obama!
AP calls it. That makes Obama 5 for 5 on the weekend. Go read Matt Y for some a good tongue in cheek take on what we're likely to hear... [More]
Signs of the Realignment
The Reagan Democrats are coming home.... [More]
February 11, 2008
Bill Clinton Pisses Me Off - Again.
Hotline: It's an argument that Bill Clinton has made before: Hillary Clinton loses caucus states because working-class voters are disenfranchized by evening caucuses. But in the midst of a frenetic... [More]
Pledged Delegate Count
Chris Bowers has an excellent state-by-state breakdown. Bottom line? Obama: 1,020 Clinton: 934 Two footnotes worth noting: The Michigan Democratic Party has claimed it will send a pledged delegate count... [More]
Simple Questions, Simple Answers
Andrew Sullivan recounts yet another amazing story about an independent turned Obama supporter, and then asks: Who else does this? My answer: No one. But remember, this isn't about Obama.... [More]
Krugman Is Losing It
Until now, I've avoided bashing Paul Krugman for his recent string of anti-Obama columns, because well.. I just didn't see the point. Some of his criticisms of Barack were fair,... [More]
Behind the Scenes at the Clinton Campaign
In case you somehow missed it, Hillary Clinton decided over the weekend to replace her campaign manager. There had been talk after Iowa that this would happen, but the unexpected... [More]
About That Texas Primacaucus
Ambinder has everything you need to know here. Shorter version: Clinton's advantage may be a mirage. UPDATE: Much, much more here. And here.... [More]
Another Reason I Think McCain's Campaign Is Doomed To Fail
AFP: The 157,000-strong US force in the insurgency-wracked country is currently on track to come down from 19 brigades to 15 by July, a reduction of at least 20,000 troops... [More]
Crunching the Numbers
Via Andrew Sullivan, I see that one of the dKos kids has crunched the numbers and learned some very, very interesting things about the presidential race. you kids working on... [More]
This Cannot Be For Real. Can It?
At first I didn't want to believe this was for real, but given that its posted on Hillary's official YouTube page, it must be. Who is the intended audience for... [More]
A Once In a Generation Opportunity
Clive Crook gets it: What makes Mr Obama remarkable is that his message of hope, resonating so powerfully with black America, is cast to every American, regardless of colour, to... [More]
Prediction: If He Takes Ohio, It Is Over
Atrios, half jokingly: If Obama, say, took Texas and Ohio then maybe this would be valid, but I don't know why people are always encouraged to get out of the... [More]
Obama > Clinton > GOP
It looks like Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, has offered yet another brilliant justification for Hillary's campaign: "Senator Obama has in fact never had a serious Republican challenger." Never mind... [More]
February 12, 2008
Open Mouth, Insert Foot
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, one of Clinton's key supporters in the state, made the following argument to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "You've got conservative whites here, and I think there are... [More]
Clinton Just Couldn't Be Bothered, Apparently
Today the Senate voted to grant retroactive immunity to telecomm companies that had previously broken the law as they cooperated with administration demands related to the its illegal and unconstitutional... [More]
Today's Quick Hits
+ If you've been reading this blog for some time this shouldn't surprise you, but nevertheless it is worth a mention: It isn't just subprime mortgages that are the problem.... [More]
A Huge Blunder? [Updated]
McCain just made what I think will prove to be an enormous strategic blunder. Up until now he has said that he will accept public financing for his general election... [More]
DC!
I spent the first three decades of my life in and around DC, so this is big news to me: Eleanor Holmes Norton, D.C.'s non-voting representative in Congress, just came... [More]
Empty Rhetoric, Mindless Followers? Don't Sleep!
After watching this, I dare anyone to honestly repeat that lie about the Obama campaign again.... [More]
Undercovered? Only Because It Isn't A Story, Ezra
Most of the time you find me quoting Ezra Klein, it is because I am agreeing with him. Not today: Obama's allergy to taking questions -- both from the press... [More]
Obama's Win, The Short Version
He crushed her. Across the board, in every demographic group. He just crushed her.... [More]
February 13, 2008
Obama's Win, The Long Version
He has now won 8 states in a row, with at least one win in every major region of the country. He's won 23 of 34 state contests. He's won... [More]
Mr. McCain, Welcome To Your New Corner
Having spent the better part of the last three months boxing Hillary Clinton into a rhetorical corner, Obama used last night's victory speech to start working on Sen. McCain. With... [More]
More On Obama's Victory Speech
It wasn't just significant because of the way he began to take on McCain. It was also big because of the way he began to bring around some of his... [More]
Shifting The Center
Here's Matt Y's take on something I just wrote about: Most people, by contrast, are relatively open to persuasion -- if the argument is made by a persuasive figure. And... [More]
Hillary For You And Me, Bring Back Our Democracy!
We have reached a new low. I blame Andrew Sullivan for subjecting me to this.... [More]
The Fear Inside The Clinton Camp?
AP: "The fear inside the Clinton camp is that Obama will win Hawaii and Wisconsin next week and head into the March 4 contests for Ohio and Texas with a... [More]
February 14, 2008
Obama's Economic Policy Speech
Can't find the video yet, but here are the highlights: · Protecting Homeowners: Obama has proposed a fund to offer direct relief to victims of mortgage fraud and would ease... [More]
February 13, 2008
Never Count A Clinton Out?
As anyone who knows me well will tell you, I have immense respect for the political skills possessed by Bill Clinton. His reputation as a politician who can connect with... [More]
February 14, 2008
Quote of the Day + Stat of the Day
"I don't know how you look at it other than to say, he did an amazing job getting people organized," Byrne said. Larry Byrne, an adviser to the Clinton campaign,... [More]
Because I Cannot Help Myself
From Joshua Green's fascinating take on the firing of Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle: No one could have predicted Barack Obama’s sudden rise, though the Clinton campaign was slower... [More]
Turning the Mountains Blue
Two huge signs that the Mountain West is turning Democratic blue: First, Sportsmen for Climate Change, a group representing 670 hunting and fishing organizations, is demanding serious action to curb... [More]
Today's Campaign Updates
A few things that deserve longer posts but probably won't get them. + Michael Crowley's piece over at TNR takes the most detailed look I've yet seen at Obama's record... [More]
Not All Endorsements Are Created Equal
Huge news for Obama: not only has the United Food and Commercial Workers Union endorsed him, but the SEIU looks set to follow. [UPDATE: They're a go.] And on the... [More]
February 15, 2008
The Solutions Business?
Publius responds to Clinton's latest swipe at Obama: Just curious - what exactly has Hillary ever solved? What solutions has she ever successfully enacted? I mean this to be a... [More]
Quick Updates From the Campaign Trail
+ Loads of new polls out today for the upcoming Texas primacaucus. Clinton's up. Clinton's down. Even if the precise numbers aren't clear, one thing is: Texas is in play.... [More]
Irony
Now how funny is this? Tom DeLay's ridiculous effort to gerrymander Texas is likely to give Obama a huge boost in the upcoming Texas priamcaucus. Short-term, DeLay might be thrilled... [More]
What Did John Lewis Really Mean?
All of this talk about Rep. John Lewis' "switch" - is he unendorsing Clinton? Is he endorsing Barack? Neither? Both? - is missing the point. Greg Sargent explains: Lewis said... [More]
Speeches v. Solutions
Hillary Clinton apparently has a new line of attack on Obama: Speeches don't put food on the table. Speeches don't fill up your tank, or fill up your prescription, or... [More]
Why Does Charles Krauthammer Hate Ronald Reagan?
Very odd column today from Krauthammer. An excerpt: There's no better path to success than getting people to buy a free commodity. Like the genius who figured out how to... [More]
February 16, 2008
Increase The Pressure
Like I said before, if Obama wins HI and WI, and then goes on to take either Ohio or Texas, its over. WaPo: African American members of Congress, many under... [More]
Obama Got No Votes In Harlem? Erm... I Don't Think So
I'm not sure why this isn't bigger news yet: Black voters are heavily represented in the 94th Election District in Harlem's 70th Assembly District. Yet according to the unofficial results... [More]
Sir Charles Talks Politics
Have I mentioned recently that I love Charles Barkley? Cause I do... Be sure to watch past the 3 minute mark. Charles always did know how to swing his elbows... [More]
Sexism? You've Got To Be Kidding Me.
OK, I've listened to and read some really stupid things during this campaign, but this tops them all. In fact, I think I can say with absolute confidence that nothing... [More]
The Obama "Mystery" Is Not Really All That Mysterious
David Ignatius has a very odd column in tomorrow's WaPo. An excerpt: "Why is the press going so easy on Barack Obama?" asks a prominent Democratic Party strategist, echoing a... [More]
February 17, 2008
What Have They Done For You Lately?
Hilzoy has just completed an extensive 3-part series examining the legislative records of Obama and Clinton. It's not the sort of thing you'll want to read in full, but the... [More]
Losing the Battle Over the Meta-Narrative
Earlier this week, I highlighted one of the major problems for the Clinton camps "we're bigger, we're badder, we're ruffer, we're tougher" electability argument. TNR's Isaac Chotiner, riffing off of... [More]
No You Can't
The opportunity for parody is apparently endless [H/T Hilzoy]... [More]
Clinton Giving Up On Wisconsin?
First the big Democratic Party dinner in Wisconsin goes badly for her... After days of battling each other in tit-for-tat television advertisements ahead of the Wisconsin primary, Senators Hillary Rodham... [More]
Maybe Small Varmints, Too?
Hillary in Wisconsin: Mrs. Clinton arrived in Milwaukee on Saturday afternoon and immediately headed south to Kenosha, a blue-collar city of 90,000 on the shores of Lake Michigan. She spoke... [More]
Obama Opts Out of Public Financing System?
If this is true, then good for him. If it wasn't clear that the system was dead before this election cycle, it certainly is now. Small donor democracy is the... [More]
Polls!
Gallup: Obama up by 5% nationwide. Pollster.com: Poll of polls gives Obama is first national lead. ARG: Clinton up by 6% in Wisconsin.... [More]
February 18, 2008
Sen. Obama Defends Hope
This may be one of his best yet. Of all of the attacks leveled by the Clintons, this seems to me to be the most pathetic. Attacking hope? Attacking inspiration?... [More]
The Clueless Clinton Campaign
Publius catches an article from yesterday's Post that I somehow missed. If you weren't yet convinced by my argument that the Clintons really aren't master campaign strategists, this should take... [More]
Slinging Stupidity
Today seems to be the day the Clinton campaign is determined to expose their stupidity. If their Texas primacaucus cluelessness wasn't enough to convince you, this should do the trick.... [More]
February 19, 2008
More Clinton Campaign Incompetence
These people are starting to remind me of the Bush adminsitration: Marc Ambinder reports: Even with a Gov. Ed Rendell-ordered extension, it appears as if Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania campaign still... [More]
Mid-Day Round Up
Here are some things that I would have blogged about if I had more hours in the day: + A federal judge in California has ordered the opensource journalism site... [More]
Polls!
+ Gallup's national polls show the race between Obama and Clinton tightening back to 1-point. At the same time, they also show Obama catching her among both hispanics and middle-aged... [More]
Clinton "Worked The Night Shift, Too."
I mean this in all non-snarky seriousness: When?... [More]
LiveBlogging Clinton's "I've Lost Ten In a Row" Concession "I'm Not Even Going To Acknowledge I've Lost Again" Speech
First off, the tone of crowd is very high-pitched. The room is very clearly filled with a crowd made up almost entirely of women. If this was anything other than... [More]
LiveBlogging Obama's Victory Speech
First off: Clinton was in a high school gym. Obama is in what sounds like a huge stadium. Just sayin.... Obama started by explaining to everyone how the weird Texas... [More]
First Thoughts on Wisconsin
In no particular order: + Its now ten in a row. And the last few have been by large, double-digit margins. + Wisconsin is a big, white, liberal, progressive, blue... [More]
Chuck Todd's First Take on Delegate Counts
After tonight, Obama's lead in pledged delegates will be up over 150. To catch up, Hillary needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates. But if you give Obama... [More]
February 20, 2008
Michelle Obama's Pride in America
Since everyone else is already talking about this, I suppose I should too. First, here's what she said: "For the first time in my adult lifetime, I'm really proud of... [More]
Waiting For Hawaii
While we're (I'm not the only one up, right?) waiting for Hawaii, here are some early stories from the Honolulu Advertiser, the state's biggest-by-far newspaper. + The previous record turnout... [More]
Runner-Up
An amazing stat: With 97% of the vote counted in Wisconsin, Obama has a nearly 200,000 vote lead over Clinton. But Clinton, believe it or not, has a similar lead... [More]
The Triumph Of Narrative
Paul Waldman has an absolute must-read column over at TAP, I've long argued, both here and elsewhere, that there are few things more important than politics than narrative, and that... [More]
Obama Wins Hawaii in a Landslide
When I suggested earlier that turnout was the stat to watch tonight, even I had no idea how right I would be. Honolulu Advertiser: Sen. Barack Obama, who was born... [More]
McClatchy: "It's now Obama's race to win"
Today's top story: WASHINGTON -- Illinois Sen. Barack Obama storms out of Wisconsin firmly in command of the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination and poised to inflict a potentially... [More]
Final Hawaii Results
Over 37,000 people turned out to participate in the caucuses. If I'm reading my history correctly, that's somewhere between 7x and 8x the previous record in the state. I mean...... [More]
On To Ohio
And it looks like it won't be pretty: Allies of Hillary Clinton plan an expensive, stealth campaign to buttress her standing in the must-win states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.... [More]
One Last Thought About Michelle Obama's "Controversial" Remarks
Here's David Axelrod's take on Michelle's comments: "Anyone who heard her remarks...would understand that she was commenting on our politics" -- not on America itself." We're done with this now,... [More]
1 For 4
TPM reports: Clinton surrogate and Machinists union President Tom Buffenbarger: "Give me a break! I've got news for all the latte-drinking, Prius- driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust fund babies crowding in to... [More]
Smackdown!
Ezra Klein: ...explanations are not excuses, and it's growing increasingly hard for Clinton to argue that her experience and electoral discipline set her apart when the largest organization she's ever... [More]
Pro-Hillary 527 Up With Their First Ad
Here's their first ad: Interesting approach. It starts with an attack - "If speeches could create jobs, we wouldn't be facing a recession." - and then moves on to a... [More]
Teamsters to Endorse Obama
Ambinder reports that the Teamsters are set to endorse Obama. I wonder how many of them wear Birkenstocks?... [More]
Look! It's a Pander Bear!
Hate Tip: TPM/EC... [More]
February 21, 2008
More on the McCain Story
I'm heading off to bed now. In the meantime, Josh Marshall has an absolute must-read.... [More]
Obama Wins Democrats Abroad
The "Democrats abroad" primary is now complete. Obama won 65% to 32%. If he wins Ohio, its over.... [More]
"It's a clusterfuck! Just a clusterfuck!"
Fun times in HillaryLand.... [More]
Pre-Debate Bits and Bobs
A bunch of things that probably deserve their own post but won't get them tonight.... + Members of the Senate were set to meet today to try and reach some... [More]