May 6, 2008

Want to Understand What The Fall Election Will Look Like?

Go read Jonathan Cohn. Now.

After describing the battle between Clinton and Obama, Cohn pivots to describe how the fall race between Obama and McCain will be different. Here's the key part of Cohn's argument:

But this fight may not play out the same way with McCain, for one simple reason: If Obama's slogan is "yes we can," McCain's is "no we can't."


Obama wants to invest heavily in better schools and public infrastructure? McCain says it will cost too much money. Obama wants to make sure every American has health insurance? McCain says it's socialized medicine. Obama wants to make free trade more humane? McCain's says no, no, no--that's messing with the free market.

Even Obama's calls to change political discourse for the better--the most familiar and, at times, most empty part of his pitch--play into this dynamic. When Obama says he wants to end the politics of division, McCain dismisses it as just a slogan.

This is exactly, precisely why I have always believed Obama will win big in the fall. It is what I've always believed about Obama, all the way back to the first time I saw him speak at the convention in 2004. As Cohn explains, it is precisely the same rhetorical dynamic that played out in 1980 between Reagan and Carter, and even more so in 1932 between FDR and Hoover. "Yes we can" always - always - beats "no we can't" in times when the nation's mood is bleak. And judging from the national polls, the bleakness has reached historical levels.

The realignment is coming. Forget the Reagan Democrats coming home. The Obama Republicans are finding their new home. It's coming...

Clinton Cancels All Morning Media Appearances

So says Tim Russert @ 11:54pm.

Meanwhile, Indiana is down to <20k vote difference, and with about 1/4 of Lake County reporting Obama is taking 75% of the country's vote. If that holds across the remaining votes, well....

It all comes down to... sign it with me now... Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana...

Race, Gender, and Age

Listening to and reading all of the exit poll data tonight, it looks like everyone is once again missing the point. Obama is "losing" among white voters, but only because he is losing pretty big among white voters over the age of 65, and in particular among white women over the age of 65. Among white men over the age of 65 Clinton barely wins. And among white voters who aren't of retirement age? Obama wins outright.

The problem isn't race. Or at least, it isn't just race. Its far, far more complex than that.

Now what does that tell us about the fall election? It depends whether or not you think Democratic voters over the age of 65 - most of whom have voted Democratic for their entire lives - will realign themselves out of the Democratic Party. And if you do believe that, you need to explain why.

Also worth keeping in mind: the retirement age population as a percentage of the total population is much smaller than you might think. You could lose every voter over the age of 65 and still win the election in a massive landslide.

population_pyramid_2008.gif

UPDATE: In case you missed it, now we be a good time to read Al Giordano's take on race in this election. Don't have time? Then just look at this graphic from earlier this week in the NYT:

blowcorrected.gif

Size

Worth keeping in mind... The approximatepopulation of tonight's states:

North Carolina: 9,100,000
Indiana: 6,300,000

The Kids Are Alright

Following up on my latest post about how different today's college students are from those just 4 short years ago, there's this from yesterday's WaPo (via Tapped):

Roughly a third of young Americans would give a "great deal of consideration" to entering government service if asked by their parents, a teacher or -- surprisingly -- the next president of the United States, according to a Gallup survey.


But, for the most part, no one is urging them to think about public service. Sixty percent of the survey respondents under age 30 said they had never been asked to consider working for Uncle Sam.

But 33 percent of them said they would give serious consideration if it came from their parents, 27 percent if it came from a teacher and 29 percent if it came from "the newly elected president."

The survey was conducted on behalf of the nonprofit Council for Excellence in Government and is scheduled for release tomorrow as part of Public Service Recognition Week, a tribute to the contributions that public employees make to the nation.

The data suggest that 18-to-29-year-olds, known as millennials, are "more responsive to interactive communication and personal attention than people have realized," said Patricia McGinnis, president and chief executive of the council.

The survey, she said, also shows "the potential for the new president and administration, especially as we have the retirement wave getting under way, to ask people, not just millennials but older people as well, to serve. There's a sense that many would respond and step up, as they did when John F. Kennedy asked."

Over the next five years, about a third of the federal government's full-time employees will leave, mostly baby boomers who are retiring. A 2006 Gallup survey found that many young Americans do not see the government as innovative and creative, reinforcing long-standing concerns that federal agencies may find it difficult to compete with the private sector in hiring talented young people.

This is what separates Obama's campaign from everyone else. He's already asked young adults to step up and join the movement, and they are more than doing their part. Should Obama take the nomination and win in the Fall, they will have played a key part in his success. Its a deliberate strategy on Obama's part, one that he will no doubt translate into a call to action should he be privileged enough to deliver his first Inaugural Address.

The realignment is there if we want it. All that it will take is lots of hard work and dedication. Its within your reach, America, if you want it badly enough.

May 2, 2008

Bits And Bobs

+ Another first for Bush. No president has ever broken the 70% disapproval mark in a Gallup poll. Until now.

+ We finally have an answer on those missing White House emails. They are gone because the backup system they used was "Comically Primitive." The system created under the Clinton administration worked just fine, so the Bush people trashed it and replaced it with something that didn't work. Brilliant, no?

+ Hillary Clinton thinks she's Goldilocks. If the answer to every question was whatever was in the middle of the extremes, that'd be great. The problem, of course, is that the answer is rarely a simple average what everyone else is saying around you.

+ McCain now says that Bush shouldn't be blamed for the "Mission Accomplished" speech from 5 years back. Never mind that McCain once disagreed with his current position... what bothers me is that a supposed military expert is arguing that the Commander in Chief shouldn't be held responsible for every aspect of an event he ordered on board an aircraft carrier during a time of war. Particularly when we know, as apparently McCain does not, that the president's staff was directly responsible for the banner. This may seem like a small issue, and on its own it is. What's troubling is how it is part of McCain's long history of saying nonsensical things about areas in which he is supposedly expert.

+ Ross Douthat has a great point about McCain's approach to domestic policy here. It's not just that the policies are bad, but worse, that their politics are bad too.

+ In case you somehow missed it, the woman known as the DC Madam committed suicide. McMegan and Ezra ask all the right questions here. [Even more from McMegan here]

+ And in case you were wondering, Justice Scalia is still very much an asshole.

April 30, 2008

Blue Jersey...

...is not a swing state.

That is all.

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